2021-09-02-牛津经济研究院-UK_Consumer_caution_hasn_t_gone_away_6页_248kb

报告摘要

3 September 2021

UK Weekly Economic Briefing Summary

📍 Key Points

Consumer Behavior
- July saw a return of caution among UK consumers, with unsecured lending flat and household savings rising.
- Net household bank deposits increased by £7.1bn in July, exceeding the pre-pandemic average.
- Despite lifting of most Covid restrictions on July 19, consumer spending remained cautious.
Housing Market
- Mortgage repayments saw a sharp drop in July after a surge due to the expiry of the stamp duty holiday tax concessions.
- Mortgage approvals fell to the lowest level in a year, while house price growth picked up to 2.1% in August.
PMI Indicators
- August PMIs for services and manufacturing slipped, signaling a slowdown in economic momentum.
- Supply constraints, including staff shortages and delivery delays, contributed to the slowdown.
Monetary Policy
- The Bank of England appointed Huw Pill as the new Chief Economist and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
- Pill is expected to adopt a moderate stance on monetary policy, less hawkish than some previous decisions.

⚠️ Downside Risks

GDP growth in July is revised to 0.8% m/m due to factors like consumer caution and the 'pingdemic'.
Supply constraints remain a challenge for businesses, potentially slowing recovery.

📅 Calendar Highlights

Friday, 10 September: Release of UK GDP data for July and related indicators (e.g., manufacturing output, industrial production).

📈 Forecast

The economy is projected to continue its recovery, though risks persist. Short-term indicators point to a pick-up in spending, particularly in travel and retail, but challenges like supply issues and cautious consumer behavior remain.