2021-09-30-牛津经济研究院-UK_A_stronger_base,_but_growing_headwinds_6页_244kb

Summary of UK Economic Briefing (1 Oct 2021)

Economic Recovery Strengths and Challenges

• GDP Growth: Q2 GDP growth revised up from 4.8% to 5.5% q/q, indicating a stronger rebound post-lockdown than initially expected. GDP in Q2 was 3.3% below Q4 2019, down from the previous estimate of 4.4% shortfall. The upward revision was mainly driven by the health sector and business investment.

• Household Savings and Consumption: The household saving ratio dropped from 18.4% in Q1 to 11.7% in Q2, reflecting increased freedom post-Covid restrictions. Excess savings revised down to around £170bn from £200bn, but consumer spending remains cautious, with muted increases in credit and low mortgage lending growth.

• Credit and Lending: Consumer credit saw a small increase in August (£0.4bn net rise), but still below pre-pandemic levels. Mortgage lending rebounded to £5.3bn in August after a July drop, but approvals fell. High-frequency indicators show mixed signals, with card spending rising but overall consumer behavior unchanged.

• Inflation and Monetary Policy: Inflation is expected to continue rising due to factors like energy bill increases. The Bank of England has pushed back GDP recovery dates to early 2022, with Governor Bailey suggesting supply issues prolong the recovery. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may vote for interest rate hikes if price pressures persist, but economic growth remains uncertain.

• Manufacturing and Services: September manufacturing PMI dipped to 57.1, with input and output price growth high but below summer records. Services PMI fell for the fourth consecutive month, indicating slowing growth despite supply-side pressures like labor shortages and transportation costs.

• Future Outlook: Forecasts suggest the economy may not return to pre-Covid levels until 2022, with risks from policy changes (e.g., closure of furlough scheme) and ongoing supply chain issues. High-frequency data for upcoming events, such as September services PMI, may provide further insights.

Overall Economic Perspective: While the economy shows resilience with strong household balance sheets and easy credit conditions, headwinds from supply constraints and cautious consumer demand limit growth momentum. Inflationary pressures and potential policy adjustments add uncertainty to the recovery path.