2017葡萄酒行业报告（英文版）_70页_4mb

State of the Wine Industry 2017 Summary

Introduction

The 2017 report by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Wine Division uses the metaphor of Jaws to illustrate the risks and opportunities in the U.S. wine business. The report emphasizes that while the market appears strong in some areas, it is also marked by challenges and changing dynamics. The term "average" is not useful for describing the wine industry, as it is highly segmented and influenced by a variety of macroeconomic, regulatory, and consumer trends.

Core Content and Key Predictions

2017 Summary Forecast

SVB forecasts an improvement in business conditions for 2017, with some notable challenges such as a worsening regulatory environment and higher interest rates. The overall wine industry is expected to see:

• Sales growth of 4 to 6 percent in dollar terms.
• Volume growth of 2 to 3 percent.
• The growth will be exclusively in the premium wine segment, with volume and price drops expected in the below $9 segment.

The report predicts that the premium wine segment will grow between 10 to 14 percent in 2017, up from 9 to 13 percent in 2016, driven by better retail conditions, strong consumer demand, and good supply.

Premiumization and Restaurant Sales

Premiumization is a clear and dominant trend, responsible for nearly all growth in the wine trade. The shift is not a true "trading down" but rather a movement toward higher-quality, more expensive wines. The below $9 segment continues to decline in volume, but the rate of decline has slowed.

Restaurant wine sales have been declining for a decade, with the trend accelerating in recent years. However, the report notes that the red varietals and blends above $25 showed positive growth of about 1 percent. On a dollar-weighted basis, total U.S. restaurant wine sales remained flat for the year, with the same segment showing a 1.8 percent growth rate.

The decline in restaurant sales is attributed to:

• Limited access to distribution for small wineries.
• Frugal millennials who prefer to buy wine at retail for less than what is charged in restaurants.
• Retiring baby boomers with fixed incomes who are also shifting their beverage choices.

Varietal Demand

• Red blends remain a key category for millennials, who are increasingly influencing the lower price range of premium sales.
• As incomes rise, millennials are expected to move toward varietal wines and imports.
• The Gen X cohort is projected to surpass baby boomers in 2021 as the largest fine wine consumer demographic, with millennials taking over by 2026.

Harvest Yield and Quality

• California's 2017 harvest is expected to be 3.95 million tons crushed, a 7 percent increase from 2016.
• 2016 harvest quality was excellent, with lighter yields in the San Joaquin Valley compared to the overall average.
• Oregon, Washington, and the Okanagan Valley are highlighted as "Vintage of the Decade" regions due to strong quality and yields.
• There is a shortage of high-quality pinot noir and cabernet, but excesses in certain non-core varietals and lower-priced wine grapes are evident.

Bulk Wine and Imports

• A strong U.S. dollar, available foreign supply, and willing millennials are expected to drive import growth at all premium price levels.
• The $3 to $5.99 segment has permanently lost its appeal, with producing countries showing no interest in this category.
• Large-format bottles (e.g., 3-liter boxes and Tetra Pak formats) from companies like Constellation, Delicato, and Gallo have influenced growth in the below $9 segment, though this trend is not a true reversal of premiumization.

Land and M&A

• The narrowing supply of arable land suitable for higher-end wine production will drive up vineyard prices in premium regions.
• Oregon and Washington will continue to see high interest in vineyard acquisitions from larger wine companies.
• California's Central Valley is expected to see additional acreage removed from production due to regulatory and economic pressures.

Winery Financial Performance

• Small wineries face challenges due to limited access to distribution and regulatory restrictions.
• Direct-to-consumer sales are becoming a critical revenue source for family-run wineries, though the percentage of direct sales for larger wineries is declining.
• SVB Peer Group Database and State of the Industry Survey indicate positive expectations for 2017, with year-to-date sales growth at 9.9 percent and year-end projections at 11.9 percent.

Final Thoughts

The report concludes that while the wine industry is improving, it is also complex and volatile. The premiumization trend is strong and ongoing, and restaurant sales continue to face headwinds. The shift in consumer demographics is expected to reshape the market in the coming years, with Gen Xers and millennials becoming the growth demographics for premium wine. SVB emphasizes the need for strategic adaptation and awareness of market risks.

Key Takeaways

• Premiumization is a dominant trend, with the premium wine segment driving most of the industry's growth.
• Restaurant wine sales have declined over the past decade, with only the $25+ red varietals and blends showing positive growth.
• Direct-to-consumer sales are growing for small wineries, though large wineries are moving away from this model.
• California's harvest is expected to increase in 2017, but arable land shortages will push vineyard prices higher.
• Federal and state regulations continue to impact the industry, particularly for small wineries.
• Millennials are influencing premium wine demand, especially in the $8 to $11.99 red blend category, but they are expected to move toward varietals and imports as their incomes rise.
• SVB's 2016 predictions were mostly accurate, with sales growth in the premium segment being 10 to 14 percent in 2017.