2013年-世界发展银行全球_Regional_Economic_Integration_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_4页_819kb

MENA Knowledge and Learning - Regional Economic Integration in the Middle East and North Africa

Core Content

This document from May 2013, Number 95, discusses the state of regional economic integration in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, highlighting the challenges and opportunities for enhancing trade, investment, and productivity. It provides a comparative analysis with other regions and outlines recommendations for policy reforms.

Main Points

1. Current State of Economic Integration in MENA

• Limited regional integration: MENA is one of the least integrated regions globally and regionally. In 2008-10, intraregional exports of goods averaged less than 8% of total exports, compared to 25% in ASEAN and 66% in the EU.
• Export composition: The region is heavily reliant on primary commodities, particularly oil and gas, which account for 76% of exports (as of 2008-10). Manufactured goods make up just over 11%, and other sectors account for 13%.
• Export diversification and technology: Despite recent efforts, MENA exports remain concentrated and low-technology, with only 21% of exports from key countries (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia) being medium or high-technology products, compared to 37% in other middle-income economies.
• Service exports: Dominated by low-value-added tourism-related travel services, which made up 78% of service exports in 2008. In contrast, South Asia's service exports are led by information and communications technology and finance, which constitute 55% of service exports.

2. Trade Barriers and Tariffs

• Tariff reduction: Over the last decade, MFN tariffs in MENA have decreased significantly, from 15% in 2002 to 6% in 2009. However, tariff protection remains high by international standards.
• Preferential trade agreements (PTAs): MENA has signed numerous PTAs, including with the EU, Turkey, and the US, but the implementation challenges are significant due to varying rules of origin, sector coverage, and regulatory requirements.
• Impact of PTAs: While PTAs have contributed to reducing trade barriers and spurring trade, there is little evidence that they have significantly boosted FDI or policy reforms. Some PTAs, such as PAFTA and the Agadir Agreement, have shown positive effects on regional exports.

3. Infrastructure and Cross-Border Facilitation

• Transport and logistics: Trade costs in MENA are high, with 20–40% of the final delivered price of nonoil exports attributed to trade costs. These costs are twice as high as in Western Europe for neighboring countries.
• Infrastructure improvements: While some countries like the UAE have excellent logistics, most require substantial improvements in transport, power, and telecommunications to enhance competitiveness.
• Key projects: Initiatives like the Mashreq Corridor Program aim to reduce cross-border constraints and boost trade by $15 billion annually by 2020, creating 250,000 jobs, mostly in export-oriented light manufacturing.

4. Challenges and Opportunities

• Rules of origin: These can inadvertently impede trade by forcing regional producers to source from less efficient suppliers within the region, rather than from global markets.
• Services trade: A labor-intensive sector, services are critical for job creation. Reforms to ease entry and licensing restrictions, promote competition, and harmonize regulations are needed.
• Public ownership: Continued public ownership in services can hinder regional cooperation, especially given caution towards privatization in the region.

5. Future Directions

• Regional and global integration: The document emphasizes that regional and global integration should go hand-in-hand. Strengthening linkages to global markets and vertical integration in production chains are key.
• Policy recommendations:
  • Reduce MFN tariffs to match the most competitive regions.
  • Roll back non-tariff barriers.
  • Improve logistics and transport infrastructure.
  • Harmonize custom procedures and border facilitation.
  • Promote competition in backbone sectors (telecom, transport, power).
  • Encourage strategic investments in broadband and power transmission.

Key Information

• MENA's economic potential: Despite its population and GDP share, the region has underperformed in terms of trade and investment due to low integration.
• Political change: The political transformation in the Arab world offers an opportunity to accelerate economic integration.
• Deauville Initiative: A strategic partnership between MENA countries and G8 partners (including the World Bank) to support economic and governance reforms through governance, finance, and trade.

Conclusion

A development strategy based on regional and global integration can unlock MENA's economic potential. This requires a comprehensive reform agenda tailored to each country's specific needs and reform stage. The GCC has made progress in tariff reduction and logistics, but services reforms are still needed. The Mashreq countries should focus on infrastructure and trade facilitation, while the Maghreb should prioritize tariff and non-tariff reductions and cross-border trade facilitation.