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Hydropower Special Market Report Summary (2021)

Core Content

The International Energy Agency (IEA) published the first ever market report dedicated to hydropower, highlighting its critical role in global clean energy transitions and its potential to support the integration of variable renewables like solar and wind. The report provides detailed forecasts for hydropower capacity and generation through 2030, focusing on reservoir, run-of-river, and pumped storage projects.

Main Points

Hydropower's Global Role

• Hydropower is the largest source of clean and flexible electricity generation, accounting for one sixth of global electricity generation in 2020.
• It provides 55% more electricity than nuclear and more than all other renewables combined.
• Reservoir hydropower accounts for half of global hydropower capacity additions by 2030.
• Pumped storage hydropower is expected to account for 30% of global capacity additions by 2030.
• Run-of-river hydropower is the smallest growth segment due to its limited storage capability and prevalence of small-scale projects.

Key Drivers of Growth

• Emerging and developing economies have led hydropower expansion since the 1970s, mainly through public sector investments.
• Electricity demand growth, export opportunities, and cost-effective access drive expansion in regions like Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
• China is the largest hydropower market, expected to account for 40% of global capacity growth by 2030.
• India is the second-largest growth market, with new targets and incentives set to unlock stalled projects.
• Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to record the third-largest growth in hydropower capacity due to untapped potential and low-cost access needs.

Challenges and Barriers

• Slow growth is expected in China, Latin America, and Europe due to environmental concerns, aging infrastructure, and policy uncertainty.
• New projects face long lead times, complex permitting, high costs, and community opposition.
• Investment risks are higher in emerging economies due to economic uncertainties, financial health of utilities, and policy instability.
• Advanced economies struggle with market designs that do not support pumped storage or modernisation of aging plants.

Sustainability and Modernisation

• Approximately 50% of hydropower's economically viable potential remains untapped globally.
• Sustainability standards are crucial to ensure public acceptance and investor confidence.
• Modernisation of aging plants is essential to maintain reliable and flexible power supplies, with $127 billion expected to be invested in this area by 2030.
• Global modernisation needs are estimated to require $300 billion, more than double the projected investment, to replace aging equipment.

Policy Recommendations

The report outlines seven priority areas for governments to accelerate hydropower growth and support the transition to a low-carbon energy system:

1. Move hydropower up the energy and climate policy agenda
2. Enforce robust sustainability standards with streamlined regulations
3. Recognize hydropower's role in electricity security and reflect its value in remuneration mechanisms
4. Maximise flexibility of existing hydropower plants through modernisation incentives
5. Support expansion of pumped storage hydropower
6. Mobilise affordable financing for sustainable hydropower development in developing economies
7. Price in the public benefits of hydropower, such as irrigation, flood prevention, and water supply

Investment and Revenue Certainty

• More than 90% of hydropower plants built since the 1950s have been developed under revenue certainty through power purchase guarantees or long-term contracts.
• Long-term revenue visibility is essential to reduce investment risks and financing costs, especially for large-scale projects.
• Private sector involvement requires policy support to ensure bankability and risk allocation.

Climate Change and Flexibility

• Hydropower's flexibility and storage capabilities are unmatched, making it a key asset for integrating wind and solar PV into electricity systems.
• Reservoirs can store up to 1500 TWh of energy in one cycle, which is 170 times more than current global pumped storage capacity.
• Pumped storage will remain a key storage option, even as battery storage expands significantly.

Conclusion

The report underscores that hydropower is a critical but underappreciated component of the global energy transition. While it has the potential to supply low-carbon electricity on demand, its growth is constrained by policy, economic, and environmental challenges. To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, governments must increase policy attention, improve investment frameworks, and ensure sustainability in all hydropower projects.