2004-03-02-皮尤-Three-in-Ten_Voters_Open_to_Persuasion_11页_38kb

Summary

According to the Pew Research Center's national survey conducted February 18-29, President Bush leads Senator John Kerry 48%-44% in a head-to-head matchup approaching the 2004 election. Overall, 33% support Bush ("Committed to Bush"), 38% support Kerry, and 29% are "Swing voters" who prefer one candidate but may change their mind.

A majority of swing voters (55%) approve of President Bush's job performance and hold favorable views of both candidates. They also have generally positive opinions of both political parties. On issues, most swing voters rate the economy as "only fair" or worse (79%), favor Kerry on economic perceptions, and support Bush on Iraq and the war on terror.

Specifically, 61% of swing voters support action in Iraq, while 29% oppose. Required economy improvement by next year is favored by 60% of Bush supporters vs. 32% of Kerry supporters. About half (49%) self-identify as moderates, 34% as conservatives, and 39% are independents. Most swing voters (55%) are women.

Key issue splits include abortion (56% Bush say more restrictions), gun control (56% Bush say protect rights), and gay marriage (82% Bush oppose). This report combines multiple surveys with a sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.