20181115-USDA-Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_19页_639kb

Summary of the Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Report (SSS-M-363, November 15, 2018)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and Mexican sugar markets for the fiscal years 2017/18 and 2018/19, highlighting production, consumption, imports, and ending stocks trends. It also includes projections and analysis of supply and demand dynamics.

U.S. Sugar Market Outlook

2017/18 Market Overview

• Ending stocks: 1.993 million STRV (short tons, raw value), a 21,000-STRV reduction from the previous month's estimate.
• Domestic deliveries: 12.185 million STRV, a 0.6% decrease from the previous year, with 12.048 million STRV for food and beverage use.
• Stocks-to-use ratio: 16.0%, a decrease from 15.14% in the previous year.

2018/19 Projections

• Domestic deliveries: Projected at 12.320 million STRV, a 1.1% annual increase from 2017/18, with 12.175 million STRV for food and beverage use.
• Domestic production: Expected to be 9.015 million STRV, a decrease due to a lower forecast for the sugarbeet crop.
• Ending stocks: Projected at 1.404 million STRV, resulting in a 11.3% stocks-to-use ratio.
• Sugarbeet production: Reduced by 262,000 STRV from the October forecast, with a 4.9% decrease in sugarbeet crop size.
• Cane sugar production: Increased by 15,000 STRV, mainly due to higher Louisiana sugarcane yields.
• Imports: Projected at 2.801 million STRV for 2018/19, unchanged from the October forecast. Quota program imports decreased slightly, while high-tier imports increased.

Mexico Sugar Market Outlook

2017/18 Market Overview

• Ending stocks: 1.395 million MT (metric tons, actual value), with 4.739 million MT delivered for domestic use.
• IMMEX deliveries: 482,000 MT, a 108,000-MT increase from the previous estimate.
• Stocks-to-consumption ratio: 36.6%, indicating a significant increase in ending stocks compared to consumption.

2018/19 Projections

• Domestic deliveries: Projected at 4.893 million MT, with 4.413 million MT for human consumption (a 148,000-MT decrease from the previous month).
• IMMEX deliveries: Projected at 480,000 MT, a 90,000-MT increase from the October forecast.
• Exports: Projected at 1.028 million MT, a 53,000-MT reduction from the previous month, with 721,000 MT exported to the U.S. and Puerto Rico.
• Sugar production: Projected at 6.025 million MT, unchanged from the previous month. Conadesuca forecasts 6.249 million MT from 823,000 hectares of sugarcane.
• Ending stocks: Projected at 1.613 million MT, a 178,000-MT increase from the previous month.

Key Trends and Insights

• U.S. Production:

  • Sugarbeet production decreased due to cold weather affecting the harvest.
  • Cane sugar production increased slightly due to improved yields in Louisiana.
  • Overall U.S. sugar production for 2018/19 is projected at 9.015 million STRV.

• U.S. Consumption and Deliveries:

  • Domestic deliveries for food and beverage use are projected to increase slightly in 2018/19.
  • The growth in U.S. sugar use has slowed in recent years.

• U.S. Imports:

  • Imports for 2017/18 decreased by 38,000 STRV, mainly due to reduced Mexican imports.
  • High-tier imports increased, partially offsetting the decline.
  • Import levels are expected to remain stable in 2018/19.

• U.S. Ending Stocks:

  • Ending stocks for 2017/18 were 1.993 million STRV, with a 16.0% stocks-to-use ratio.
  • Ending stocks for 2018/19 are projected to decrease to 1.404 million STRV, reflecting a 11.3% stocks-to-use ratio.

• Mexico's Market Dynamics:

  • Mexico's sugar production for 2018/19 is projected to increase, with Conadesuca's forecast suggesting a significant rise.
  • Domestic deliveries for human consumption are expected to decrease slightly in 2018/19.
  • Ending stocks are projected to increase, leading to a higher stocks-to-consumption ratio.

Figures and Data Highlights

• Figure 1: Shows U.S. beet sugar production trends from 2006/07 to 2018/19.
• Figure 2: Illustrates sugarbeet yields by region for the same period.
• Figure 3: Highlights U.S. sugarbeet production and yields.
• Figure 4: Depicts U.S. and world refined sugar prices.
• Figure 5: Shows U.S. sugar deliveries by sector for the 2008/09 to 2017/18 period.
• Figure 6: Depicts U.S. sugar deliveries for food and beverage use.
• Figure 7: Displays U.S. sugar inventories as of September 30.
• Figure 8: Shows sugarcane processors' inventories.
• Figure 9: Depicts sugarcane refiners' raw sugar inventories.
• Figure 10: Illustrates U.S. refiner margins.
• Figure 11: Displays Mexican sweetener consumption from October to September.
• Figure 12: Shows Mexican IMMEX deliveries by month.

Conclusion

The report indicates a tightening of U.S. sugar supplies in 2018/19, with lower beet sugar production and higher cane sugar production. Mexico is projected to see increased sugar production and ending stocks, with continued reliance on the IMMEX program for exports. The market dynamics are influenced by weather, production forecasts, and trade agreements, with implications for prices and margins in the U.S. and consumption patterns in Mexico.