2021-12-20-牛津经济研究院-European_Cities_Medium-term_outlook_remains_stable_amid_rising_infections_7页_297kb

European Cities Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report outlines the medium-term economic outlook for 25 major European cities, focusing on GDP growth and employment trends from 2022 to 2026. It considers the impact of the pandemic, supply-side issues, and the recent rise in Covid-19 infections. The report also discusses the return of workers to offices and the role of key sectors in driving economic recovery.

Main Points

2022 GDP Growth Outlook

• Overall Stability: Despite challenges from the pandemic and global supply issues, 22 out of 25 major European cities are expected to exceed pre-pandemic GDP levels by 2022.
• Fastest Growth: Amsterdam, Madrid, and Dublin are forecast to lead in 2022 GDP growth. London will also see significant gains.
• Lagging Cities: Paris and Nordic capitals (except Copenhagen) are expected to lag, though they are already close to or above pre-pandemic levels.
• Tourism Impact: Madrid and Barcelona are recovering slowly due to their heavy reliance on tourism and weaker consumer spending rebound.
• Dublin's Distortion: Dublin's growth is partly influenced by multinational asset movements, which may not reflect real economic activity.

Medium-term Growth (2022-2026)

• Eastern Cities Lead: Warsaw, Sofia, and Prague are expected to grow the fastest, with Warsaw leading at 4.1% annual GDP growth.
• Western Cities: Madrid and Barcelona will also outperform, while London will surpass Paris in growth.
• Productivity vs Employment: Eastern cities will see growth mainly driven by productivity, while western cities will benefit from employment expansion.
• Germany: Berlin will outperform Munich and Frankfurt, thanks to its strong media and culture sectors. Frankfurt will be hindered by weak financial and manufacturing performance.
• Italy: Milan is expected to outpace Rome due to a more business-oriented economy, though both will grow slowly compared to other cities.

Office-Based Employment

• Top Job Creators: London and Madrid will create the most office-based jobs (over 100,000 each) by 2026.
• Other Strong Gainers: Paris, Budapest, and Barcelona will also see significant growth in office employment, with Budapest particularly strong in professional and administrative services.
• Workplace Mobility: Office mobility is currently at 80% of pre-pandemic levels, with most workers expected to return to offices by the end of 2022, though some remote work flexibility may persist.

Employment Recovery

• By 2023: Employment in most European cities is expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
• Job Creation Leaders: Copenhagen and Stockholm are forecast to lead in total job creation over the medium term.

Key Information

• GDP Recovery: 22 out of 25 cities are expected to surpass pre-pandemic GDP levels by 2022.
• Covid-19 Impact: Renewed restrictions have slowed retail and recreation mobility, but most cities are on track to recover.
• Sector Drivers: Tourism, ICT, and office-based sectors are major contributors to growth in various cities.
• Regional Trends: Eastern European cities are expected to outperform western ones in the medium term, driven by productivity and economic restructuring.
• Data Sources: Forecasts are based on Oxford Economics' European Regional Model and are consistent with the global economic outlook from December 2021.

Summary Table

Note: The table is a simplified representation, with actual percentages and details available in the full report.

Conclusion

The European cities outlook suggests a stable medium-term economic recovery, with eastern cities and certain western hubs like Madrid, Barcelona, and London leading the way. While some cities are still recovering from the pandemic, the overall trend indicates a return to growth and employment levels, supported by rising vaccination rates and the gradual easing of supply-side constraints.