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European Beer Market Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the European beer market based on Nielsen data and insights from Citi Research. It highlights the performance of major beer companies across different regions, including the UK, France, Italy, and Spain, as well as the overall European market trends.

Main Points

• Total Europe Beer Market:

  • Volume Growth: Down by -5.4% in the latest 4-week period, compared to +0.3% in the previous period.
  • Sales Growth: The positive price/mix effect of +2.7% led to a -2.9% sales growth, a decline from the +1.8% in the prior period.
  • Market Share: AB InBev gained +104 bps in value share, showing strong performance.
  • Regional Performance:
    • UK: Weak volume growth (-0.1%), with some recovery from the previous +4.8%.
    • Spain: Volume down -1.9% (previous -6.6%), showing signs of improvement.
    • Italy: Volume up +0.3% (previous -2.3%), with some recovery.
    • France: Volume up +1.8% (previous +0.8%), indicating some improvement.

• AB InBev:

  • Volume Growth: Up +3.2% (previous +6.2%), with a 12W trend of +2.7%.
  • Sales Growth: Up +3.4% in the latest 4W, compared to a 12W trend of +3.0%.
  • Price Mix: Up +0.2% in the 4W.
  • Value Share: Up +104 bps.
  • Western Europe Exposure: Accounts for ~5% of sales.

• Carlsberg:

  • Volume Growth: Up +3.5% in the latest 4W (previous +6.1%), with a 12W trend of +2.6%.
  • Sales Growth: Up +4.8% in the 4W, compared to a 12W trend of +2.4%.
  • Price Mix: Up +1.3% in the 4W.
  • Value Share: Up +56 bps.
  • Western Europe Exposure: Accounts for ~50% of sales.

• Heineken:

  • Volume Growth: Down -10.3% in the last 4W (previous -3.9%), with a 12W trend of -7.7%.
  • Sales Growth: Down -8.1% in the 4W, compared to a 12W trend of -4.2%.
  • Value Share: Down -104 bps.
  • Price Mix: Up +2.4% in the 4W.
  • Western Europe Exposure: Accounts for ~35% of sales.

• Diageo:

  • Guinness Brand: Volume down -2.3% in the UK (previous +5.2%), with a 12W trend of +2.7%.
  • UK Sales: Up +2.0% in the 4W, compared to a 12W trend of +5.3%.
  • Price Mix: Up +5.4% in the 4W.
  • Value Share: Up +8 bps.

• Private Label:

  • Volume Growth: Down -3.7% in the 4W, with a 12W trend of -2.8%.
  • Value Share: Down -20 bps in the 52W trend.

Key Information

• Nielsen Data Scope: Covers five markets in Europe and nine markets in total Europe, including Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Spain, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, and Portugal.
• Off-Trade Share: Nielsen data captures ~80% of the off-premise market for total Europe, with ~65% of beer sales in Western Europe coming from off-trade.
• Market Share Changes:
  • AB InBev gained +104 bps in value share.
  • Carlsberg gained +56 bps in value share.
  • Heineken lost -104 bps in value share.
• Regional Analysis:
  • The UK showed mixed results with weak volume growth and some recovery in certain brands.
  • France had a notable decline in Heineken brand volume, but Carlsberg showed strong growth.
  • Italy saw positive volume growth for some brands, but overall volume was only +0.3%.
  • Spain experienced a decline in volume, but there were signs of recovery.

Figures and Data Sources

• Figure 1: Total Europe Beer Market Value, Volume and Price Mix Growth, 4W trend.
• Figure 2: Total Europe Beer Market Value, Volume and Price Mix Growth, 4W trend.
• Figure 3: Total Europe Beer Market Value, Volume and Price Mix Growth, 3M MA.
• Figure 4: Nielsen Volume Share by Company (12M).
• Figure 5: Euromonitor Volume Share by Company (2019).
• Figure 6: Volume Share by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 7: Value Share by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 8: Volume Growth by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 9: Value Growth by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 10: Volume Growth by Brand, 3M MA.
• Figure 11: Value Growth by Brand, 3M MA.
• Figure 12: UK Nielsen Beer Summary.
• Figure 13: UK Market Value, Volume and Price Mix Growth, 4W trend.
• Figure 14: UK Market Value, Volume and Price Mix Growth, 3M MA.
• Figure 15: Nielsen Volume Share by Company (12M).
• Figure 16: Euromonitor Volume Share by Company (2019).
• Figure 17: Volume Share by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 18: Value Growth by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 19: Volume Growth by Brand, 3M MA.
• Figure 20: Value Growth by Brand, 3M MA.
• Figure 21: Italy Nielsen Beer Summary.
• Figure 22: Italy Beer Market Value, Volume and Price Mix Growth, 4W trend.
• Figure 23: Italy Beer Market Value, Volume and Price-Mix Growth, 3M MA.
• Figure 24: Nielsen Volume Share by Company (12M).
• Figure 25: Euromonitor Volume Share by Company (2019).
• Figure 26: Volume Share by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 27: Value Share by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 28: Volume Growth by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 29: Value Growth by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 30: Spain Nielsen Beer Summary.
• Figure 31: Spain Beer Market Value, Volume and Price Mix Growth, 4W trend.
• Figure 32: Spain Beer Market Value, Volume and Price Mix Growth, 3M MA.
• Figure 33: Nielsen Volume Share by Company (12M).
• Figure 34: Euromonitor Volume Share by Company (2019).
• Figure 35: Volume Share by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 36: Value Share by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 37: Volume Growth by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 38: Value Growth by Company, 3M MA.
• Figure 39: European exposure for covered names.
• Figure 40: Heineken Western Europe Sales Exposure.
• Figure 41: ABInBev Western Europe Sales Exposure.
• Figure 42: Carlsberg Western Europe Sales Exposure.
• Figure 43: Heineken Western Europe Sales Exposure by Country.
• Figure 44: ABInBev Western Europe Sales Exposure by Country.
• Figure 45: Carlsberg Western Europe Sales Exposure by Country.

Disclaimer

• Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
• The report may contain conflicts of interest as the Firm does business with companies covered in its research.
• The report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
• Redistribution is not permitted without Citigroup's written permission.