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European Non-Alcoholic Beverages Analysis Summary

Date: 13 June 2025

Market Overview

• European Carbonate Volumes Decline: Total EU soft drinks volumes fell by -3.7% YoY in the latest 4-week period, following a flat 12-week trend.
• Value Growth Accelerated: Despite volume declines, overall sales increased by +2.1% YoY due to positive price/mix adjustments and regional recovery.
• Country Performance:
  • Italy & France: Strong value growth (+4.8% and +11.3% YoY, respectively).
  • Spain & Germany: Recovered slightly (-0.2% YoY), but volume declines persisted.
  • UK: Deceleration in growth (+3.1% YoY), lagging previous performance.

Key Brand Insights

• Coca-Cola (CCEP):
  • Volume declines worsened (-8.3% YoY in the UK, -16.4% in Germany).
  • Lost market share (-6bps) due to weaker performance.
• Fever-Tree:
  • Europe-wide value sales up +4.6% YoY, with strong growth in France (+32% YoY) but declines in Germany and Italy.
• Private Labels: Volume declined -3.4% YoY, share slightly down to 10.2%.

Regional Breakdown

• UK: Weak volume performance (-0.9% YoY), slower sales growth (+3.1% YoY).
• Germany: Volume declined -9.9% YoY, despite slight positive value growth.
• Spain: Volumes recovered minimally (-0.2% YoY).
• Italy: Positive volume growth (+4.2% YoY), driven by CCH brands.

Investment Implications

• CCEP: Facing declining volumes and market share, particularly in key markets like the UK and Germany.
• CCH: Strong volume growth in Italy indicates resilience in Southern Europe.
• Premium Segment: Fever-Tree shows potential in France, but challenges elsewhere.

Analysis Based on Nielsen Data (9 European markets, ~80% off-trade coverage).