最后一英里生态系统的未来（英文版）_28页_3mb

Summary of The Future of the Last-Mile Ecosystem

Core Content

The Future of the Last-Mile Ecosystem report, published by the World Economic Forum in January 2020, examines the rapid transformation of urban delivery systems driven by the exponential growth of e-commerce, urbanization, and technological innovations. It outlines the challenges and opportunities facing both public and private sector players in managing the increasing demand for last-mile deliveries and highlights the need for coordinated and strategic interventions to address congestion, emissions, and delivery cost issues.

Main Viewpoints

• Rapid Growth in Last-Mile Deliveries:
  E-commerce has led to a significant increase in last-mile delivery demand, with global urban deliveries expected to grow by 78% by 2030. This growth is fueled by urbanization, rising middle-class income, and the increasing use of digital platforms for shopping.

• Impact on Urban Mobility:
  The surge in delivery vehicles is causing severe congestion and emissions in urban areas. In the absence of intervention, traffic volume in the top 100 cities is projected to rise by 36%, leading to 21% more congestion and 32% more emissions by 2030. This could add 11 minutes of extra commute time per passenger daily.

• Differentiation Between Parcel and Freight Deliveries:
  While parcel delivery involves smaller items and is more flexible, freight delivery (items over 32 kg) is more impactful due to its higher contribution to emissions and congestion. Freight accounts for ~85% of delivery mileage, making it a key focus area for interventions.

• Technological Innovations:
  Disruptive technologies such as drones, autonomous vehicles, and delivery robots are reshaping the last-mile landscape. These innovations aim to improve efficiency, reduce delivery times, and lower environmental impact.

• Need for Systemic Change:
  The current lack of harmonized regulations and coordinated strategies between public and private sector players is hindering progress. The report calls for collaboration, data sharing, and policy alignment to create a sustainable and efficient last-mile delivery ecosystem.

Key Interventions

The report evaluates 24 prioritized interventions, including:

• Electric Vehicles (EVs): Promote the use of EVs to reduce emissions.
• Night-time and off-peak deliveries: Reduce daytime congestion.
• Dynamic re-routing and load-pooling: Improve traffic flow and delivery efficiency.
• Multi-brand parcel lockers and boxes: Offer flexible and accessible delivery points.
• Autonomous delivery robots: Enhance last-mile efficiency and reduce the need for parking space.
• Consolidated pickup and drop-off points: Mitigate traffic congestion and improve logistics efficiency.

These interventions can collectively reduce CO₂ emissions by 30%, congestion by 30%, and delivery costs by 25% by 2030 compared to a "do nothing" baseline.

Transition Scenarios

The report presents three transition roadmaps to guide public- and private-sector players:

1. Mandated Adoption:
   Involves heavy regulation and incentivization, such as setting EV target shares and implementing strict urban mobility policies. This scenario assumes a 100% EV penetration rate by 2030 and a 95% parcel locker penetration rate.

2. Customer Choice Adoption:
   Relies on voluntary changes in consumer behavior and market demand. This scenario assumes a 40% EV penetration rate and a 30% parcel locker penetration rate.

3. Unguided Adoption:
   Represents the current trajectory with no intervention. It predicts 36% more delivery vehicles, 6 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions, and 21% more congestion by 2030.

Key Recommendations

• Public-Private Collaboration:
  Cities and companies should work together to accelerate the implementation of effective interventions and share best practices.

• City Platforms:
  Establish platforms for cities to exchange methodologies and coordinate efforts.

• Harmonized Regulations:
  Develop consistent and robust regulations for autonomous driving and inner-city mobility to support innovation and sustainability.

• Data and Analytics:
  Leverage data to optimize load-pooling, dynamic routing, and real-time traffic control. Joint data standards and sharing can enhance the effectiveness of interventions.

• Investment in Sustainable Technologies:
  Automotive OEMs and logistics companies should focus on sustainable supply-chain technologies such as EVs, autonomous vehicles, and smart delivery systems.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that action is urgent and that strategic, integrated approaches are essential to transforming the last-mile ecosystem. Without effective interventions, cities will face increased congestion, higher emissions, and greater delivery costs. The proposed roadmaps and interventions offer a path toward a more sustainable, efficient, and customer-centric delivery system by 2030.