世界经济论坛-最后一英里生态系统的未来（物流快递）（英文）-2020.1-28页_7mb

The Future of the Last-Mile Ecosystem Summary

Core Content

The document titled "The Future of the Last-Mile Ecosystem" provides an in-depth analysis of the growing challenges and opportunities in urban last-mile delivery, focusing on the impact of e-commerce and technological advancements. It outlines a transition roadmap for public- and private-sector players to address congestion, emissions, and delivery costs, while promoting sustainable and efficient urban freight solutions.

Main Drivers of Growth

• E-commerce Expansion: E-commerce sales have tripled globally from 2014 to 2019. By 2030, the global demand for last-mile delivery is expected to increase by 78%.
• Urbanization: By 2030, 60% of the global population will live in cities, with urban congestion expected to rise by 20-35% since 2010.
• Technological Innovation: Disruptive technologies such as drones, autonomous vehicles, and delivery robots are transforming the last-mile ecosystem.
• Consumer Behavior: Consumers are increasingly expecting same-day and instant delivery, with the latter growing at 17% annually.
• Delivery Segmentation: The last-mile ecosystem is segmented into seven different delivery networks, ranging from parcel delivery to freight delivery, each with distinct logistics and operational requirements.

Key Challenges in the Base Case Scenario

If no effective interventions are implemented, the following issues will worsen in urban areas by 2030:

• Delivery Vehicle Growth: The number of delivery vehicles in the top 100 cities will increase by 36%.
• Emissions Increase: Delivery-related emissions will rise by 32%, contributing significantly to urban air pollution.
• Congestion Rise: Urban congestion will increase by over 21%, adding 11 extra minutes of commute time per passenger per day.
• Impact of Freight: Freight delivery, which accounts for ~85% of delivery mileage, will be the primary contributor to congestion and emissions.
• Infrastructure Strain: Urban areas face land scarcity, with many existing infrastructures (e.g., bridges, quays) not designed for the increased traffic and weight of delivery vehicles.

Key Interventions and Recommendations

The report evaluates 24 prioritized interventions across various dimensions, including:

• Traffic Volume
• CO₂ Emissions
• Congestion
• Delivery Cost
• Investment Needs
• Customer Convenience
• Competitive Disruption

Recommended Transition Scenarios

1. Electric Vehicle (EV) Regulation: Implementing EV mandates in inner-city areas can significantly reduce emissions and improve sustainability.
2. Night and Off-Peak Deliveries: Delivering during off-peak hours can reduce congestion and improve traffic flow.
3. Dynamic Routing and Load-Pooling: Using data analytics for efficient routing and load consolidation can reduce delivery costs and time.
4. Multi-Brand Parcel Lockers and Boxes: These serve as centralized drop-off points and can reduce the need for frequent delivery vehicle stops.
5. Autonomous Delivery Robots: These can be used for last-mile delivery, especially in densely populated urban areas.
6. Consolidated Pickup/Drop-Off Points: Establishing these can alleviate parking and traffic issues, particularly for B2C "to-door" deliveries.
7. Green Algorithms: Tools like Greenplan can optimize delivery routes based on available space and time constraints, reducing emissions and improving efficiency.

Collaboration and Policy Recommendations

• Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration between public and private sectors to accelerate the implementation of effective interventions.
• City Platforms: Establishing platforms for cities to share best practices and methodologies can enhance the efficiency of last-mile solutions.
• Harmonized Regulations: A unified regulatory environment is essential to support the adoption of sustainable technologies such as autonomous vehicles and zero-emission delivery options.
• Data Sharing and Analytics: Robust data systems and analytics are vital for optimizing delivery networks, improving route planning, and enabling real-time traffic control.

Timeline and Implementation

• The report suggests a timeline for implementation, highlighting that some interventions can be effective within the next few years.
• 2025 is identified as a critical year, with many cities and companies aiming to transition to 100% electric or zero-emission delivery.
• By 2030, the goal is to achieve a 30% reduction in CO₂ emissions, 30% reduction in congestion, and 25% reduction in delivery costs compared to a "do nothing" baseline.

Conclusion

The document concludes that immediate action is necessary to address the growing challenges in the last-mile ecosystem. It advocates for a collaborative, integrated approach that combines technology, regulation, and data analytics to create a more sustainable and efficient urban delivery system. The report also highlights the role of city-specific strategies and the importance of cross-sector innovation to meet the rising expectations of consumers and reduce the environmental impact of urban freight.