WTW-全球养老金金融观察——2023年第三季度（英）-13页_439kb

Third Quarter 2023 pension index results showed increased volatility compared to the previous quarter, driven by central bank policies leading to higher discount rates across all regions. Asset performance was negative in most countries except Brazil, while liabilities decreased in all areas. The combined effect resulted in modest positive index gains for most regions, with Switzerland being the exception due to significant liability changes.

• Overall Summary:

  • The quarter was marked by central bank policies causing greater volatility.
  • Discount rates rose in all countries, impacting financial assumptions.
  • Asset returns were mixed: Brazil saw positive gains, while others experienced moderate losses.
  • Inflationary pressures eased but remained a concern. Combined asset and liability effects led to positive index results in most cases, except Switzerland.

• Region-Specific Highlights:

  • Brazil: Positive asset returns (+2.1% in Q3, +12.8% year-to-date), supported by domestic equities and fixed income. Pension index increased 45 basis points.
  • Canada: Negative asset returns (-6.4% in Q3, -4.5% year-to-date), influenced by falling bond and equity markets. Pension index rose by 1.9%.
  • Eurozone: Similar to Canada, with negative returns (-1.8% in Q3) and a 5.9% increase in the pension index.
  • Japan: Mixed asset performance (domestic equities positive, bonds negative), leading to a -1.8% return in Q3 and a 5.2% index gain.
  • Switzerland: Negative returns (-0.9% in Q3) and liability decrease, contributing to a 0.4% index decline.
  • United Kingdom: Negative asset gains (-4.2% in Q3) but positive liability impact, driving a 0.6% index increase.
  • United States: Negative returns across asset classes (-3.3% in Q3), with a 3.7% index gain due to discount rate changes.

• Key Factors:

  • Investment returns were negative in most regions, except Brazil.
  • Discount rates increased moderately across all countries (e.g., Europe +53 bps, US +70 bps), affecting liability measurements.
  • Liability growth was negative for all regions due to interest accumulation and assumption changes.
  • Currency and regulatory differences may influence plan results, though results are reported in local currencies.

• Risk Management and Monitoring:

  • Organizations benefit from daily monitoring of funded status to respond to market changes and achieve cost objectives.
  • Successful multinational pension risk management involves understanding complex risks, clear risk tolerances, and multi-local evaluation strategies.

• Notes on Methodology:

  • Pension index is based on hypothetical benchmark plans with assumed contributions and asset allocations.
  • Smoothing mechanisms exist in some accounting standards, potentially cushioning year-to-year performance.
  • Results reflect local financial data and are subject to currency and regulatory variations.