战略与国际研究中心-Iraq-After-the-Election_114页_4mb

Summary of Iraq After the Election: Meeting the Challenges of 2010

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the political, economic, and security challenges facing Iraq in the year following the 2009 elections, with a focus on the period leading up to and after the US troop withdrawal. It outlines the complexities of governance, the state of the security forces, the impact of the election on political dynamics, and the broader implications for stability and development in Iraq.

Main Challenges in 2010

Political Challenges

• Paralysis by Democracy: The lack of a national unity government led to ineffective governance and stalled progress on key issues.
• Election Results: The results showed a strong nationalist and anti-incumbent vote, but sectarian and ethnic divisions persisted. The State of Law Party (Maliki), Iraqiya (Allawi), and the Iraqi National Alliance (Hakim-Jafaari-Sadr coalition) were the main winners, while the Unity Alliance (Bulani) was a major loser.
• Kurdish Unity: The Kurdish vote demonstrated considerable unity between the PUK and KDP.
• Leadership and Cabinet Formation: The process of forming a government was slow and complicated, with the President requiring a 2/3 majority for election and the Prime Minister needing to be nominated by the largest bloc and then form a cabinet within 30 days.
• Uncertain Neighbors: Iraq faced uncertain relations with its neighbors, particularly due to regional tensions and the potential for external interference.

Security Challenges

• Reduction in US Forces: The US aimed to reduce its troop presence to 50,000 by August 2010, leading to a shift in security responsibilities to the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).
• ISF Development: Despite efforts to increase the size of the ISF to 680,000, the force remained underdeveloped, particularly in terms of training and capability.
• Security Incidents: There was a notable decrease in attacks, with a shift from ambushes and snipers to IEDs and bombings.
• Insurgent Activity: The insurgency faced significant setbacks, with the loss of key figures and reduced contact with AQSL. However, remnants of violence and sectarian tensions persisted.
• Security Gap: The withdrawal of US forces raised concerns about the ability of the ISF to maintain security, especially in the absence of external support.

Economic and Social Challenges

• Budget Crisis: Iraq faced a budget crisis, with the 2009 budget expired and the 2010 budget struggling with deficits.
• Economic Stagnation: The real GDP growth was estimated at 4.3%, hindered by falling oil prices and a global economic downturn.
• Infrastructure and Development: There was a need to stabilize the economy, improve infrastructure, and ensure effective use of foreign aid.
• Displacement Issues: A significant number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees were still in need of support, with challenges in relocation and resettlement.

Key Areas of Focus

Governance

• Leadership: The Chiefs of State included President Jalal Talabani, Vice Presidents Adil Abdul-Mahdi and Tariq al-Hashimi, and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.
• Cabinet Formation: The process of forming a government was delayed, with the President having the authority to ask the largest bloc to nominate a Prime Minister.
• Legal Reforms: There was a push for a more effective civil legal system and better balance between the judiciary and police.

Security Forces

• Training and Readiness: Special Forces were trained, but the rest of the ISF lacked readiness and capability.
• Transition Issues: The Sons of Iraq (SOI) struggled to transition into the GOI due to a lack of education and training.
• Security Trends: The number of attacks decreased, but the nature of attacks shifted towards more sophisticated and deadly methods.

Civilian and Military Casualties

• Civilian Deaths: There was a significant number of civilian casualties, with a notable increase in bombings targeting government facilities.
• Military Deaths: Both US and Iraqi military personnel faced high casualties, with US deaths classified as battle deaths under investigation.

Key Challenges in 2012 and Beyond

• Constitutional and Legal Reforms: A focus on creating a more inclusive and effective legal system for all ethnic and sectarian groups.
• Economic Stability: The need for a stable and sustainable economic and infrastructure development plan.
• National Unity: Efforts to create a more unified national leadership and to address ethnic and sectarian divisions.
• Security Transition: Shifting the Iraqi military from counterinsurgency to deterrence and defense against foreign threats.
• Security Sector Reform: Modernizing and reorganizing the security forces to ensure effective rule of law and reduce corruption.

Underlying Challenges

• Ethno-Sectarian Tensions: Persistent sectarian and ethnic divisions, with the majority of the population being Shi’a, followed by Sunni, and a small percentage of other ethnic groups.
• Displacement: A large number of IDPs and refugees, with challenges in relocation and return.
• Weapons Caches: A significant number of weapons caches were found, indicating ongoing security threats.
• Security Incidents: The distribution of security incidents varied by region, with some areas experiencing higher levels of violence.

Conclusion

The document highlights the complex interplay of political, economic, and security challenges in post-election Iraq. It emphasizes the need for effective governance, a stable economy, and a well-trained and capable security force to ensure long-term stability and development. The transition from US-led security to Iraqi sovereignty remains a critical issue, with significant implications for the country's future.