亚开行-在中国获得养老金、养老金和儿童投资（英）-2023.5-57页_791kb

Title: Access to Pensions, Old-Age Support, and Child Investment in the People’s Republic of China (ADB Working Paper No. 682, May 2023)

Background

Public pensions impact intergenerational transfers and child investment in societies dependent on family support. The study examines China's New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), introduced in 2009, using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). The NRPS provides social pensions and encourages savings, with varying effects across regions and over time.

Methodology

A difference-in-differences (DID) approach exploits regional rollout variations of the NRPS. Three overlapping generations are modeled: elderly grandparents, working-age parents, and their children. The analysis uses nationally representative surveys to assess changes in old-age support and educational investment. Key variables include dependence on children or pensions for support, upward transfers from adults to parents, and educational outcomes by child gender.

Key Findings

• Old-Age Support: Access to pensions reduces reliance on children by approximately 7-8 percentage points, largely replacing gender-specific reliance patterns. Pensions increase the likelihood of elderly parents relying on them (7-10 percentage points).
• Upward Transfers: Pensions crowd out economic transfers from adult children to elderly parents, with a stronger effect for sons, reducing net transfers by around CNY 100 (30% of baseline levels). Adult daughters' transfers show little change, possibly due to higher altruism.
• Child Investment: Pensions positively affect educational investment in sons but negatively impact daughters, with effects more pronounced for non-compulsory education stages. Sons' enrollment increases by about 9 percentage points, while daughters' enrollment decreases by 7.5 percentage points. This gender disparity stems from cultural preferences, such as stronger parental altruism toward sons.

Conclusion

Public pensions can fundamentally alter traditional intergenerational support systems, potentially undermining gender equity in child investments. While pensions provide better insurance for the elderly, they may reduce private transfers and shift resource allocation. Governments should consider policies to support vulnerable groups, like female students, when implementing pension programs.

Notes on Limitations

The analysis focuses on monetary transfers and neglects other forms of support, such as labor or living arrangements, which may vary by gender. Short-term data may not capture long-term effects, and results could be influenced by regional implementation differences.

References

(Keys from the document include empirical studies on pensions and intergenerational transfers, with citations to works by authors like Bau, Becker, and Jensen.)