海外发展研究所-推动发展中国家绿色复苏：中国在扮演什么角色？（英）-2021.7_79页_3mb

Summary: Driving a Green Recovery in Developing Countries – What Role is China Playing?

Core Content

This report, published in July 2021 by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), examines the role of China in supporting a green recovery in developing countries, particularly in the context of the post-pandemic economic landscape. It explores how China's domestic and international policies and investments can align with global climate goals, such as the Paris Agreement, and how they can be leveraged to foster sustainable development in countries like Pakistan, Kenya, and Nepal.

Main Viewpoints

• The Pandemic and Climate Emergency: The pandemic has had significant socioeconomic consequences, threatening progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It has also exposed vulnerabilities that are similar to those of the climate emergency, suggesting that the recovery must be aligned with climate resilience and sustainability.

• Green Recovery Trajectory: A green recovery aims to reduce emissions and improve environmental and climate outcomes. This is in contrast to "brown" recovery measures that reinforce fossil fuel dependence and may lead to stranded assets and greater climate risks.

• China's Role in Green Recovery: China, as the world's largest emitter of CO₂, has shown a commitment to green recovery through its 2060 carbon neutrality pledge and updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, its domestic and international recovery strategies have been criticized for lacking sufficient ambition and alignment with global climate goals.

• China's Green Ambitions and Implementation Gaps: While China has introduced policies like the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) and the 2035 Vision, these have been seen as conservative in their green ambitions. There is a need for more explicit carbon emission targets and stronger alignment with international climate standards.

• China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China has signaled a shift towards "high-quality" development, including green investments in BRI projects. However, there is still a lack of formal policy on aligning overseas investments with climate goals, and existing guidance remains voluntary rather than mandatory.

Key Information

• China's Domestic Green Recovery:

  • China's NDCs for 2030 include targets for reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 65% from 2005 levels, increasing non-fossil energy to 25% of total energy consumption, and expanding solar and wind power capacity.
  • Despite these commitments, the Climate Action Tracker has rated these pledges as "highly insufficient" to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal and avoid dangerous climate change.

• China's International Engagement:

  • China has been a major creditor to Pakistan, Kenya, and Nepal, and has the potential to support their green recovery through various roles: financier, technology provider, knowledge broker, and development partner.
  • The report emphasizes the importance of financial tools and alignment with international standards to unlock sustainable finance for green recovery.

• Case Study Countries:

  • Pakistan: Has benefited from the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), but faces significant debt challenges. There is a high-level commitment to a green recovery, and China could play a key role in supporting this.
  • Kenya: Has sought additional resources from China since the pandemic. Its recovery strategies have shown some alignment with NDCs, particularly in renewable energy and climate adaptation.
  • Nepal: Has also shown interest in sustainable financing from China. The report highlights the need for capacity building and alignment of standards to attract green investment.

• Barriers and Opportunities:

  • Technical and Capacity Constraints: Many developing countries lack the institutional capacity and regulatory frameworks to implement green recovery measures effectively.
  • Just Transition Challenges: There are concerns about the impact of transitioning from fossil fuel-based economies to greener alternatives, especially in sectors like manufacturing and energy.
  • Political Economy Factors: The political and economic feasibility of green recovery depends on shared norms, common standards, and mutual trust between China and host countries.

Recommendations

• Enhanced Dialogue and Transparency: Greater dialogue and transparency between China and developing countries are essential to align recovery strategies with climate goals.
• Alignment with International Standards: China needs to bring its domestic and overseas standards into line with international best practices to facilitate green investment.
• Financial Tools and Mechanisms: The report highlights the importance of using financial instruments such as capital market financing, concessional and commercial lending, and debt relief initiatives to support green recovery.
• Support for Green Technologies and Projects: China can assist in overcoming technical barriers and providing demonstration effects through green technology and knowledge sharing.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while China has shown some commitment to a green recovery, much more is needed to translate this rhetoric into tangible action. By playing a multifaceted role in financing, technology, and policy support, China can help developing countries achieve more sustainable and climate-resilient recoveries. However, this requires stronger alignment with international standards, enhanced capacity building, and more transparent and collaborative approaches.

Key Findings

• Low Climate Ambition in Recovery Measures: Despite ambitious NDCs, many developing countries have not integrated sufficient green elements into their pandemic response and recovery strategies.
• Need for Green Finance: There is a high demand for green asset finance, especially in sectors like solar power, which could increase as support for carbon-intensive energy shifts.
• China's Potential Roles: China can support green recovery as a financier, technology provider, knowledge broker, and development partner.
• Regulatory and Policy Alignment: For China to effectively support green recovery, its policies must align with international climate standards and best practices.

References and Appendices

• The report includes detailed case studies for Pakistan, Kenya, and Nepal, as well as a comprehensive list of acronyms and appendices on the impact of the pandemic on economic recovery strategies.

This report serves as a critical analysis of how China can contribute to a green recovery in developing countries, emphasizing the need for coordinated, transparent, and ambitious climate strategies.