2009年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mauritius_2页_347kb

报告摘要

Mauritius—Assessment Summary (World Bank and African Development Bank, September 29, 2009)

Core Content

Mauritius has demonstrated a strong policy implementation record and has effectively responded to the global financial crisis through macroeconomic policy adjustments. The country's economic fundamentals remain robust, with public finances sound and external debt sustainable. The flexible exchange rate and sufficient international reserves have contributed to financial stability, while banks have maintained liquidity and profitability.

Recent Economic Developments and Short-Term Outlook

Economic Growth: The economy is experiencing second-round effects from the global financial crisis, with growth slowing but still expected to remain positive.
Impact of Crisis: The crisis has mainly affected external demand for tourism and textiles, and reduced capital inflows.
Growth Projection: Economic growth is projected to slow to 2% in 2009, down from 5.3% in 2008.
Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit is expected to remain in single digits as a share of GDP due to depressed imports.
Inflation: Inflation has dropped below 1% (year-on-year) in August 2009 and is expected to stay subdued for the remainder of the year.

Economic Policy Response

Fiscal Policy

A fiscal stimulus package of about 5% of GDP is being implemented over 2009-10.
The stimulus targets infrastructure spending and financial relief for firms affected by the crisis.
The fiscal deficit is expected to deteriorate during 2009-10, but the government has introduced adjustment measures to bring the primary balance back to a small surplus by end-2011.
Public debt stands at around 60% of GDP, and further reduction is needed to minimize vulnerabilities.
Financing on favorable terms will be essential to maintain public finances and debt sustainability.

Monetary Policy

The Bank of Mauritius (BoM) adopted an accommodative stance in late 2008, cutting the repo rate by 250 basis points and reducing reserve requirements.
The policy rate has remained unchanged since then.
A foreign currency credit line was established preemptively, though only partially utilized so far.

Exchange Rate Policy

The BoM has not intervened in the foreign exchange market since December 2008.
This has led to a 4% depreciation of the rupee in nominal effective terms between end-December 2008 and end-August 2009.
The depreciation supports export competitiveness without causing a significant increase in inflation.

External Sector Vulnerabilities

Reduced Vulnerabilities: Economic vulnerabilities have decreased in recent years, and risks are generally manageable.
Main Risks: Lower demand in tourism, textiles, and real estate development, as well as reduced FDI inflows due to global financial market turmoil, pose challenges.
External Position: The external position remains sustainable, and medium-term risks, including those related to external debt, are considered manageable.
International Reserves: As of July 2009, international reserves cover about 6 months of imports, providing a financial cushion.
Rupee Depreciation: The orderly depreciation of the rupee has enhanced export competitiveness without significantly impacting inflation.