2009年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Fiscal_RulesAnchoring_Expectations_for_Sustainable_Public_Finances_72页_854kb

Summary of "Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances"

Core Content

This paper explores the role, design, and implementation of fiscal rules in promoting sustainable public finances. It discusses how fiscal rules can help anchor expectations and support fiscal consolidation, particularly in the context of the 2009 financial crisis. The analysis is based on a comprehensive dataset covering 80 countries, including both national and supranational fiscal rules.

Main Views

• Fiscal Rules and Public Finances: Fiscal rules have become increasingly common, especially since the early 1990s, and are associated with improved fiscal performance. However, they are often introduced to reinforce earlier consolidation efforts rather than as a primary tool for initiating fiscal adjustments.

• Objectives of Fiscal Rules: The main objective of fiscal rules is to promote fiscal sustainability. Rules that target the structural or cyclically adjusted balance are more effective in this regard than those targeting the overall or primary balance.

• Flexibility and Shocks: Fiscal rules need to allow for flexibility in response to economic shocks, such as output and interest rate fluctuations. Cyclically adjusted balance rules are better suited for handling output shocks due to their built-in cyclical adjustment, but they require careful implementation.

• Government Size and Stabilization: Some rules aim to limit government size and enhance intergenerational equity. Expenditure rules have become more prevalent, reflecting a dual focus on fiscal discipline and stabilization. Cyclically adjusted and structural balance rules are increasingly accepted, though over-the-cycle rules are still rare.

• Implementation and Enforcement: Effective fiscal rules require robust public financial management (PFM) systems, including reliable data, comprehensive budget reporting, and independent audit mechanisms. Strong enforcement and transparency are crucial for the credibility of these rules.

• Fiscal Responsibility Laws (FRLs): Many countries have implemented FRLs, which provide a legal framework for fiscal rules. These laws often include procedural rules, numerical targets, and mechanisms for sanctions and escape clauses.

• Role of Independent Fiscal Agencies: Independent fiscal agencies play a key role in monitoring and assessing fiscal developments, enhancing the credibility and effectiveness of fiscal rules.

• Current Crisis Response: The financial crisis has led to modifications or temporary suspension of some fiscal rules. During the transition period, a parametric approach with medium-term targets is recommended, while early announcements of credible rule-based frameworks can help guide fiscal policy.

Key Information

• Number of Countries with Fiscal Rules (2009): 80 countries had fiscal rules in place, including 21 advanced, 33 emerging market, and 26 low-income countries.

• Types of Fiscal Rules:

  • Budget Balance Rules: Overall, structural, or cyclically adjusted balance.
  • Debt Rules: Set explicit limits on public debt as a percentage of GDP.
  • Expenditure Rules: Limit total, primary, or current spending.
  • Revenue Rules: Set ceilings or floors on tax revenue.

• Rule Coverage:

  • Advanced economies emphasize coverage of cyclically adjusted balances.
  • Emerging markets have the highest coverage of fiscal aggregates.
  • Low-income countries often exclude public investment and poverty-reduction spending.

• Credibility and Flexibility:

  • Fiscal rules must be credible and flexible to respond to shocks.
  • Cyclically adjusted balance rules are more effective in dealing with output shocks.
  • Revenue rules are less directly linked to debt sustainability.

• Enforcement and Monitoring:

  • Enforcement procedures and fiscal responsibility laws are more common in emerging economies.
  • Independent fiscal bodies help in the formulation and monitoring of fiscal policy.

• Rule Strength Index:

  • A composite index of rule strength was developed using principal component analysis, capturing aspects like enforcement, coverage, flexibility, and supporting procedures.
  • The index shows an increase in the strength of fiscal rules over the past decade, especially in terms of enforcement and flexibility.

• Supranational Rules:

  • Supranational rules, such as those under the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), are often used in conjunction with national rules.
  • These rules are typically found in European countries and are less common in low-income countries.

Conclusion

Fiscal rules are an important tool for ensuring fiscal sustainability and improving public financial management. They are more common now than in the past, with a growing emphasis on combining rules for debt sustainability and government size. However, the design and implementation of these rules must consider the need for flexibility, transparency, and effective monitoring. In the context of the current crisis, a more flexible and parametric approach is recommended, with a focus on medium-term targets and credible rule-based frameworks.