20150625-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_23页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of key companies in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, focusing on their financial performance, strategic initiatives, and valuation. It includes both initiation and maintenance of coverage for stocks, along with market events and catalysts affecting their performance.

China General Nuclear Corporation (1816 HK)

Main Points

Initiate Coverage: The company is positioned as a "secular growth story" due to China's aggressive nuclear energy expansion.
Market Position: CGN is the largest nuclear power producer in China, with a significant market share.
Financial Performance:
- Net profit CAGR expected at 19% for 2015-17.
- Total installed capacity at the end of 2014 was 11,624MW, with 54% market share.
- Anticipated capacity expansion, including the Taishan and Fangchenggang plants, which will increase total capacity to 24,964MW and 6,520MW respectively.
Valuation:
- Target price of HK$5.40, implying a 26.8% upside from the current price of HK$4.40.
- DCF-based valuation suggests a 25x 2016F PE ratio.
Competitive Advantages:
- High utilisation rate (85.5% capacity factor in 2014).
- Stable fuel costs and lower exposure to fuel price fluctuations.
- Competitive fixed feed-in tariff (Rmb0.43/cum).
Risks:
- Potential for nuclear accidents.
- Slower-than-expected project approvals and commercialisation of Gen III technology.
Catalysts:
- Resumption of nuclear project approvals.
- Inland nuclear market opening in 2020.
- Progress in Gen III nuclear technology.
- Continued good performance of CNNC (601985 CH).

China Gas Holdings (384 HK)

Main Points

Update Coverage: Maintain BUY rating with a revised target price of HK$15.40.
Financial Performance:
- FY15 net profit increased by 30.9% yoy to HK$3,371.1m, in line with consensus.
- Total EBIT rose 24.3% yoy, driven by LPG and Fortune Gas segments.
- NG sales volume grew 11.6% yoy, with city gas sales up 19.2% yoy.
Valuation:
- Target price of HK$15.40, implying a 17.4% upside from the current price of HK$13.12.
- FY16 valuation suggests a lower EV/EBITDA ratio compared to previous years.
Segment Analysis:
- NG Sales: Up 11.6% yoy, with city gas growth at 19.2%.
- LPG Business: Sales up 37.4% yoy, EBIT up 92.0% yoy due to economies of scale and secured margins.
- Fortune Gas: Revenue up 83.8% yoy, driven by increased NG sales.
Strategic Initiatives:
- Partnerships and JVs with key shareholders (e.g., Beiran Enterprises, Fortune Oil, GAIL, SK Group).
- Expansion into the India market and leveraging Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration policy.
Catalysts:
- Expected gas tariff cut in 2H15.
- Continued government support for natural gas consumption.

Indonesia

Key Points

Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,150):
- New railway project: LRT.
- Strategic focus on infrastructure development.

Malaysia

Key Points

Felda Global Ventures (FGV MK/NOT RATED/RM1.75):
- Roundtable session to discuss its Indonesian venture.
- Strategic focus on expansion and collaboration in the region.

Sector Analysis

Oil & Gas

Focus: Maintained Market Weight rating.
Financial Stress Test: Evaluated based on EBITDA coverage, FCF, and cash flow.
Trends:
- Expected growth in natural gas consumption due to government policy and pricing adjustments.
- Continued investment in infrastructure and new projects.

Singapore

Key Points

Ezra Holdings (EZRA SP/HOLD/S$0.26/Target: S$0.31):
- Update on the company's status.
- Possible sale-and-leaseback of the Lewek Constellation.

Key Financial Tables

China General Nuclear Corporation (CGN)

Metric	2013	2014	2015F	2016F	2017F
Net Profit (Rmbm)	4,195	5,713	6,720	8,192	10,088
EBITDA (Rmbm)	6,341	7,917	8,233	10,223	13,573
Net Margin (%)	24.5	27.9	29.5	30.4	30.1
Net Debt/Equity (%)	265.7	91.1	105.4	96.2	84.7
Interest Cover (x)	2.3	2.5	2.5	3.0	3.1
ROE (%)	21.3	17.0	18.5	20.9	21.8

China Gas Holdings (CGH)

Metric	2014	2015	2016F	2017F	2018F
Net Profit (HK$m)	2,576	3,371	3,966	4,606	5,270
EBITDA (HK$m)	4,567	5,488	6,522	7,267	7,924
Net Margin (%)	9.9	10.6	10.4	10.3	10.6
EV/EBITDA (x)	18.4	15.3	12.9	11.6	10.6
Dividend Yield (%)	0.9	1.2	1.4	1.6	1.8
ROE (%)	18.9	19.7	19.5	24.0	20.8

Corporate Events

M3 Marine Group Luncheon: Singapore, 25 Jun.
QL Resources Berhad Roadshow: Singapore, 30 Jun.
Malaysia 2H15 Outlook & Strategy Analyst Presentation: Singapore Kuala Lumpur, 1 Jul and 6-7 Jul.
Indo Oil and Gas Sector Analyst Presentation: Singapore Kuala Lumpur, 6-7 Jul.