20180803-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_459kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the performance of various equity markets and key sectors in Hong Kong and Macau, focusing on retail and gaming industries. It includes market indices performance, Hong Kong ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) data, retail sales trends, Macau gaming results, and investment ratings.

Key Market Performance

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	EPS 18E (%)	EPS 19E (%)	P/E 18E	P/E 19E
HSI	-2.2	-2.9	-7.4	37.6	11.1	11.2	10.1
HSCEI	-2.2	-1.3	-8.3	17.0	10.6	7.7	6.9
MXCN	-2.0	-4.6	-7.9	48.2	16.1	12.3	10.6
SHSZ300	-2.2	-1.1	-16.4	34.2	15.4	11.4	9.9
SHCOMP	-2.0	-0.7	-16.3	37.7	13.6	11.1	9.7
SZCOMP	-2.4	-5.2	-20.4	73.1	22.4	16.8	13.7
INDU	0.0	4.8	2.5	44.1	9.1	14.9	15.9
SPX	0.5	4.2	5.7	47.9	10.5	17.6	19.9
CCMP	1.2	4.0	13.0	85.1	16.7	23.2	19.9
UKX	-1.0	-0.2	-1.5	171.4	7.7	13.6	12.6
NKY	0.4	3.7	-0.7	63.3	13.7	16.3	14.3

The HSI and HSCEI both declined in the short and medium term, with the SHCOMP and SZCOMP showing more significant drops.
EPS growth across all markets was positive, with SHCOMP and SZCOMP leading in 2018E.
P/E ratios were generally stable or slightly declining across all indices.

Hong Kong Retail Sector

June Retail Sales

June retail sales rose by 12.0% YoY, driven by a 17.3% YoY increase in mainland visitor arrivals.
This growth was similar to May's 12.9% but slightly slower than the 12.1% in June 2017.
Jewelry sales saw a notable acceleration, increasing by 27.8% YoY (from 23.8% in May), possibly due to a fall in gold prices.
Excluding jewelry, retail sales growth dipped to 9.0% YoY from 10.8% in May.

Visitor Trends

Mainland visitor arrivals increased by 17.3% YoY in June, but MoM growth declined to -4.8% from 3.82m in May to 3.63m in June.
Same-day visitors declined more sharply than overnight visitors, indicating a negative impact from RMB depreciation.
The Dragon Boat Festival shift from May 2017 to June 2018 contributed to higher visitor numbers in June.

Outlook

The HK Retail Association (HKRMA) expects retail sales growth to remain positive in July and August, though with some softening.
The 2018 retail sales growth forecast is maintained at +10%, supported by the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge and the Hong Kong high-speed rail station in 2H18.
RMB depreciation and trade disputes are expected to slow growth in 2H18.

Macau Gaming Sector

July GGR Performance

July GGR increased by 10.3% YoY to MOP25.3bn, aligning with the first three weeks of the month.
Growth was slower than in May (12.1%) and June (12.5%), attributed to RMB depreciation.

Visitor Arrivals

July visitor arrivals rose 9.4% YoY to 2.50m, returning to levels seen in March/April.
Mainland tourists accounted for 13.5% YoY growth, still the main driver of visitor arrivals.
Ex-Guangdong mainland visitors showed strong demand, with airport arrivals growing above 40% for five consecutive months.

Hotel Occupancy

Hotel occupancy in Macau reached 89.1% in 2Q18, a new historical high.
This marks the third consecutive quarter of record occupancy since 4Q17.

Outlook

The mass gaming segment is expected to continue growing in 2H18, driven by increased mainland visitor arrivals and the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge.
The VIP segment has slowed, but it now accounts for less than 30% of Macau gaming EBITDA, reducing its impact on profitability.

Risks

Potential visa policy tightening in Macau.
Forex controls in China.
A full smoking ban within casinos.
Intensifying competition from other Asian casinos.
Uncertainty around casino concession extensions.

Investment Ratings

Company Ratings

Rating	Description
Buy	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold	Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%

I.T (999 HK) is rated Buy.
Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK), Luk Fook (590 HK), and Chow Sang Sang (116 HK) are rated Hold.

Sector Ratings

Rating	Description
Positive	Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral	Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

The Hong Kong retail sector is rated Positive.
The Macau gaming sector is rated Positive as well.

Analyst Certification and Disclosure

The research analysts certify that all views expressed reflect their personal opinions.
There are no conflicts of interest reported, as the proprietary trading division and affiliated companies do not hold any securities mentioned in the report.
The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to buy/sell securities.
The report is intended for GF Securities (Hong Kong) clients only and may not be allowed to be sold in certain jurisdictions.

Disclaimer

The report is prepared by GF Securities (Hong Kong).
It does not constitute an investment recommendation.
Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
The points of view and recommendations are subject to change without notice.

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