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报告摘要

January 2025

US-China Tariffs: Barclays warns that a potential tariff pause would deteriorate the US trade position. A comprehensive US-China deal would require either China’s 180-degree policy shift or a US relaxation of de-risking priorities. China is unlikely to defend its currency due to tariffs acting as an external deflationary shock, amplifying domestic demand pressures.
Dollar Strength: The dollar “may be at a local low” despite market relief, but the FX market is underpricing tariff-related risks. A sustained premium could push EUR/USD toward parity, reflecting inflation/US growth risks.
Trump Tariffs: Immediate 25% tariffs on Mexico/Canada risk boosting US inflation (10-15bps) and reducing GDP growth. However, delays or negotiations may limit immediate impact.

Tech Overhang: Tech dominance (25% global fund allocation, up from 15% in 2020) is a “pain trade” if momentum reverses. Broadening into non-Tech sectors (AI adopters, EM, cyclical plays) may benefit ROW equities amid “Trump risk”.
AI Impact: AI stock volatility (e.g., DeepSeek’s R1 model) may lower expectations for infrastructure spending but could accelerate productivity gains. Higher-for-longer US rates and Fed policy divergence (EB vs. Fed) add to equity volatility risks.
Europe: Stabilizing yields could support defensives, but Tech and Industrials face earnings risks. EU equities outperformed US in 2024 due to lower tariff risks, but Mexico/Canada face near-term threats.

US Rates: Fed likely pauses cuts in 2025, with a skip (no March cut may) if inflation progresses. Yields could reach ~5% if rates hike, triggering repo market stress and higher volatility.
EM Local FX: MXN/INR/KRW remain vulnerable; Asian currencies may soften despite reduced tariff fears. EM credit “innocently” benefited from US rate cuts but faces policy uncertainty.
Sterling: GBP volatility tied to UK fiscal stance and BoE easing cues, with sequentially lower cuts post-April NLW/employer NIC rises.

IG/High Yield: European bank capital paper (AT1s/T2s) trades tight amid strong fundamentals but extension risk remains. EM IG credit saw resilient spreads during volatility, driven by lower USD/yields.
US HY: Brighthouse Financial’s acquisition speculation upgrade (to OW, $85 PT) reflects distribution platform value. RCL upgrades stem from marketing guidance + strong results.
USD/EUR Divergence: ECB’s dovish tilt contrasts with Fed’s pause, widening yield spreads (Deposits: ECB to 1.5% by H2’25, Fed to ~4.25%). This caps EURUSD rebounds.

AI Disruption: DeepSeek’s breakthrough could democratize AI and reduce Nvidia chip dependency, shifting investment focus to AI productivity gainers (software over hardware).
Energy: U.S. drillers face service industry consolidation; MENA-focused NESR (OW, $16 PT) underpriced.
Emerging Themes: “Powering AI” trade may evolve with cheaper models, boosting energy/rate considerations.

YTD Performance: Broad Tech broadening reduces US portfolio dominance, offering Europe/ROW catch-up opportunities.
Event Risk: BoE policy/US payrolls/China Q1 GDP data/US-Tariff outcomes to track Q2 2025.