2025-06-10-Jefferies-卡拉沃种植公司（CVGW）_神奇的番茄_10页_214kb

Calavo Growers (CVGW) Equity Research Summary

• Performance: CVGW missed FQ2 consensus estimates, primarily due to tomato-related pressures from tariffs, operational pauses for pest control, and adverse weather conditions, which negatively impacted profitability. Avocado pricing remained high but volumes declined, compounded by supply issues, elevated costs, and reduced consumer demand in foodservice channels. This led to a miss on EPS by approximately 24%, though topline was slightly off by a small margin.

• Rating and Price Target: Analysts from Jefferies Reiterate Hold. The current price is $27.68, with a revised price target of $25.00 (down 10%). The outlook considers near-term volatility as a key factor preventing an upside revision.

• Financial Projections: For FY2025, Jefferies forecasts revenue of $725 million and EPS of $0.53, slightly down from $0.52. Adjusted projections show revenue declining by 2% year-over-year, with potential upside in health and wellness shifts, but risks include competitive pricing pressures and inventory waste.

• Growth and Risks: Calavo is positioned to benefit from trends toward healthier eating and plant-based products. Upside catalysts include margin recovery, positive Mexican tax settlement proceeds anticipated in FY (which could fund reinvestment), and sustainability initiatives targeting carbon reduction. However, risks involve sustained pricing pressures, slower revenue growth than expected, and import-related disruptions.

• Valuation: The company is valued with a low EV/Rev (0.6x) and forward P/Rev (0.7x), based on multiples derived from analysis. The Hold rating reflects concerns about short-term volatility and competition, but acknowledges Calavo's market position.