2025-06-04-Jefferies-瑞典银行（SWEDA）_投资者日-瞄准15_的可持续股本回报率_8页_214kb

Swedbank Equity Research Summary

• ROE Target: Swedbank aims for a sustainable 15% ROE, driven by fee income growth through existing customer leverage and efficiency improvements. Underlying assumptions include a CTI below 40%, CoR of 5bp, and a CET1 buffer of 200bp. Uncertainty from potential DOJ fines may lead to excess capital, currently pushing consensus ROE below 15% for 2027.

• Strategy Overview: The bank's strategy focuses on increasing fee-based income and optimizing operations. Key areas include:

  • Swedish Banking: Maintaining mortgage market share, now stabilized, and achieving a 50% increase in digital sales by 2027.
  • Premium & Private Banking (P&PB): Expanding affluent customer connections (targeting doubling by 2027) and improving advisor efficiency to serve more clients.
  • Corporates and Institutions: Boosting market share in corporate banking, aiming for a third market penetration and a 1.5% share growth by 2027.
  • Baltic Banking: Growing the fee base in insurance and savings, targeting 25% insurance growth and doubling savings customers.

• Financial Highlights: Current price is SEK259.70, with a price target of SEK230.00 (-11% downside) and market cap of SEK291.7B. Consensus forecast for 2027 ROE is ~13%, influenced by higher CET1 buffer (e.g., 19-20% CET1 vs. target).

• Risks: Key concerns include weak housing market and corporate demand in Sweden, regulatory uncertainty from DOJ fines. Valuation uses GGM and DCF, emphasizing sustainability amid capital excess.

• Rating and Analyst View: Analysts hold a "Hold" rating with an average PT, noting the bank's strategy aligns with 15% ROE but faces execution and capital uncertainties.