2023-05-14-莱坊-CRE_Sentiment_Index_Q4_2022_10页_2mb

Knight Frank Cresa Global Corporate Real Estate Sentiment Index – Q4 2022 Summary

Core Content

The Knight Frank Cresa Global Corporate Real Estate Sentiment Index for Q4 2022 shows a continued downward trend in sentiment, with the overall index dropping by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-on-q) to 31.59, indicating negative sentiment. A score below 36 signifies negative sentiment, and the index now reflects a more pessimistic outlook compared to previous quarters.

The survey received responses from 118 corporate real estate leaders, with 75% operating at a regional or global level. This data highlights the broader implications of the sentiment shifts across the corporate real estate sector.

Main Index Trends

• Overall Index: Fell by 2.6% q-on-q, reaching 31.59, which is below the 36 threshold for positive sentiment.
• Sub-Indices:
  • Growth Dynamics: Fell by 4.6% q-on-q, with the largest drop in sentiment.
  • Portfolio Dynamics: Fell by 0.17 q-on-q, showing some stabilization.
  • Workplace Dynamics: Fell by 2.2% q-on-q, with all indicators now in negative sentiment territory.

Key Findings

Growth Dynamics

• Global economic growth sentiment improved slightly by 0.06 q-on-q, but remained negative.
• Corporate growth expectations declined, particularly in headcount and capital expenditure (capex) growth.
  • 39% of global/regional respondents viewed headcount growth as 'weak' or 'very weak'.
  • 11% saw headcount growth as 'strong' or 'very strong'.
  • Headcount and capex growth are now in negative sentiment, with scores below 3.
• Reduced expectations for growth are expected to constrain CRE activity over the next six months.

Portfolio Dynamics

• Portfolio dynamics showed a slight improvement in offshoring sentiment, with a +0.03 q-on-q change.
• However, relocation of core facilities remains a negative indicator with a score of 2.47.
• Sustainable buildings saw a downward shift in sentiment by 0.13 points, raising concerns about sustainability progress.
• 62% of local respondents expressed negative sentiment towards sustainable buildings, compared to 41.6% of global/regional respondents who were positive.
• 22.9% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with suggested relocations, suggesting a flight to quality in major office markets.

Workplace Dynamics

• Workplace dynamics indicators all fell q-on-q, with re-occupancy being the most negative.
  • 70% of respondents strongly disagreed or disagreed that occupancy rates would return to pre-pandemic levels.
  • Only 14% anticipated a return to 65–70% pre-pandemic occupancy.
• Office density showed a very marginal improvement, but is not considered significant.
• 40% of respondents expect to increase density in office space, indicating a strengthening return to office trend.
• 40% of respondents do not anticipate major changes in office design or reconfiguration, possibly due to reduced capex or inertia from pandemic-related interventions.

Weight of Opinion

• Portfolio Dynamics:
  • Expansion of physical footprint received a neutral response from over 60% of respondents.
  • Sustainable buildings had a 35% positive sentiment, while relocation had 22% positive.
  • Offshoring received a 60% negative response, reflecting onshoring and de-globalisation concerns.
• Workplace Dynamics:
  • Re-occupancy had the weakest sentiment, with 70% strongly disagreeing.
  • Office density saw 40% of respondents expecting an increase, indicating a return to office.
  • Design changes were expected by less than 40% of respondents, suggesting limited activity.

Methodology

• The index is based on a 12-question online survey divided into three equally weighted sub-indices: growth, portfolio, and workplace dynamics.
• Each sub-index includes four statements rated on a five-point scale (1 = strong negative, 3 = neutral, 5 = strong positive).
• The absolute score ranges from 5 to 20, with >12 indicating positive sentiment.
• The percentage score is calculated as (Absolute score / 20) * 100, with >60% representing positive sentiment.
• The overall index is derived by summing the sub-indices, with a maximum score of 60, and >36 indicating positive sentiment.

Key Takeaways

• The global CRE sector is more cautious in its outlook for the next six months.
• Economic growth expectations are modestly improving, but corporate performance is still negative.
• Portfolio and workplace dynamics are under pressure, with re-occupancy and sustainable buildings being the most polarizing issues.
• There is a clear shift towards more flexible working and resetting occupancy baselines.
• Offshoring remains a controversial topic, with 60% of respondents expressing disagreement.
• Capex constraints and ongoing interventions are likely to limit further activity in the short term.

Contact Information

• Dr. Lee Elliott – Head of Global Occupier Research
  Email: lee.elliott@knightfrank.com
  Phone: +44 (0)7468 729 187

• Tim Armstrong – Global Head of Occupier Strategy and Solutions
  Email: tim.armstrong@asia.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +65 6429 3531

• Colin Fitzgerald – Head of Occupier Strategy and Solutions, EMEA
  Email: colin.fitzgerald@knightfrank.com
  Phone: +44 (0)207 861 1131

• Tricia Trester – Head of Global Portfolio Solutions, North America
  Email: ttrester@cresa.com
  Phone: +1(0)347 901 1111

• Dan Whitmore – Head of Global Portfolio Solutions, APAC
  Email: dan.whitmore@asia.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +65 6249 3597

• Ross Criddle – Head of Global Portfolio Solutions, EMEA
  Email: ross.c@knightfrank.com
  Phone: +44 (0)207 590 2456