2023-05-10-莱坊-REAL_ESTATE_SENTIMENT_INDEX_Q4_OCTOBER_-_DECEMBER_2022_10页_602kb

Knight Frank-NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index Q4 2022 Summary

Introduction

The 35th edition of the Knight Frank-NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index covers October-December 2022. It captures industry perceptions and expectations based on a quarterly survey of stakeholders, including developers, non-developers, and financial institutions. The index gauges current and future sentiment in the Indian real estate market, reflecting resilience amid global challenges.

Methodology

The index is calculated using a weighted average score from survey responses. Respondents choose options indicating increase, same, or decrease for various factors like economic momentum, funding availability, and sales volumes. Scores >50 indicate optimism, scores =50 indicate neutrality, and scores <50 indicate pessimism.

Current and Future Sentiment Scores

• Current Sentiment Score: 59 (down marginally from 61 in Q3 2022), due to worsening global recession concerns, geopolitical risks (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war), and high interest rates.
• Future Sentiment Score: 58 (up from 57 in Q3 2022), driven by India's strong post-Covid economy recovery, resilient domestic demand, and positive outlook for real estate in 2023.

Zonal and Stakeholder Analysis

• Zonal Scores: Remain in the optimistic zone across all regions, though slight declines occurred in some zones due to vigilance about global economic slowdowns.
• Stakeholder Sentiments: Developers remain very optimistic (Future Score 62, up from 53 in Q3), citing sustained residential demand and sales growth. Non-developers (including banks and PE funds) are more cautious, with scores indicating steady but watchful outlooks on funding and investments.

Market-Specific Outlooks

• Residential Market: Expectations for increased residential sales and supplies are strong, with 74% of respondents in Q4 2022 expecting sales to rise compared to 46% in Q3. Prices are projected to increase, supported by demand momentum.
• Office Market: Sentiment is cautious, with 39% expecting office leasing to rise in the next six months, down from 44% in Q3, due to potential recession impacts abroad. Supply improvements are expected by 50% of respondents.

Economic and Funding Sentiments

• Economic Outlook: Stakeholders remain optimistic about India's 2023 growth, despite global headwinds, driven by robust domestic demand and better inflation control.
• Funding Availability: Sentiments are stable, with 79% expecting investment activity to increase in real estate. Funding remains supportive, though high global interest rates pose risks.

Concluding Remarks

The index underscores India's resilience in the real estate sector, with optimism for 2023 supported by strong fundamentals. However, stakeholders are watchful about global economic uncertainties and funding availability, which could delay decisions. India's domestic demand positions it well to navigate short-term challenges.