东盟能源数据-天然气在平衡东盟能源转型愿望和能源供应安全方面的作用（英）-2025.1_28页_4mb

Summary of the Role of Natural Gas in Balancing ASEAN's Energy Transition Aspiration and Energy Supply Security

Core Content

This report examines the role of natural gas in ASEAN's energy transition, highlighting its importance as a transitional fuel that supports both economic growth and environmental goals. It evaluates the current demand and supply dynamics, as well as the policy frameworks of the ten ASEAN Member States (AMS) regarding natural gas usage. The report also identifies key challenges and proposes policy recommendations to ensure a balanced approach between energy security and the transition to cleaner energy sources.

Main Points

• Natural Gas as a Bridging Fuel: Natural gas is a key transitional energy source in ASEAN, offering lower carbon emissions compared to coal and oil. It supports the integration of renewable energy and helps maintain grid stability due to its flexibility in meeting fluctuating energy demands.

• Current Natural Gas Utilisation: Natural gas accounts for about 20% of ASEAN's total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2022, with the majority used in the power and industrial sectors. Its share in power generation has declined from 35% in 2015 to 20-22% in 2022, indicating a stagnation in its use despite its role in the energy mix.

• Energy Demand by Sector:

  • Power Generation: Natural gas constitutes at least 40% of power generation capacity in five ASEAN countries. Thailand leads with 57.8% of its power generation capacity reliant on natural gas, followed by Singapore (86.9%) and Malaysia (35.3%).
  • Non-power Sectors: Natural gas is used in heavy industries, transport (as CNG), and residential/commercial sectors for heating and other purposes. It also serves as a feedstock in chemical production.

• Natural Gas Supply and Production:

  • ASEAN's natural gas production has been declining since 2019, with a 13% drop in 2023 compared to 2022.
  • Indonesia and Malaysia hold the majority of natural gas reserves in the region, with both countries accounting for over 50% of the total.
  • The region has been a net exporter of natural gas, with 80% of its exports going outside ASEAN. However, this trend is expected to shift as traditional exporters prioritise domestic needs.

• Infrastructure Development:

  • There is a growing emphasis on LNG infrastructure to diversify supply routes and enhance energy security, especially following geopolitical disruptions like the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
  • Existing pipeline networks are limited, with only a few countries having developed interconnectivity for gas transport within ASEAN.

Key Challenges

• Slow Transition to Clean Energy: The deployment of clean energy technologies is hindered by high input costs, uneven investments, and technical limitations in solar and wind energy.
• Geopolitical and Regulatory Hurdles: LNG trade and infrastructure development face logistical and regulatory challenges, particularly within the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline framework.
• Supply Shortfalls: Despite being a net exporter, ASEAN is experiencing a decline in natural gas production, which may affect its ability to meet growing domestic demand.
• Regional Disparities: Some countries, such as Cambodia and Lao PDR, lack the infrastructure and investment to fully leverage natural gas for power and industrial development.

Policy Recommendations

• Develop an Integrated Gas Market: Encourage the creation of a unified market with market-based pricing to enhance energy security and reduce dependency on single suppliers.
• Invest in LNG Infrastructure: Expand LNG import and export facilities to diversify supply routes and improve resilience against geopolitical risks.
• Promote Natural Gas in Power and Industry: Increase the use of natural gas in power generation and industrial processes, especially in countries with high coal dependency.
• Support Clean Energy Integration: Facilitate the transition to renewable energy by integrating natural gas as a flexible backup, ensuring a smooth shift from fossil fuels.
• Enhance Cross-border Cooperation: Strengthen regional collaboration on gas infrastructure and supply chain management to support a more secure and sustainable energy future.

Key Information

• Natural Gas Usage by Country (2022):

  • Thailand: 30.9 GW (57.8% of total capacity)
  • Singapore: 10.7 GW (86.9% of total capacity)
  • Malaysia: 11.7 GW (35.3% of total capacity)
  • Indonesia: 20.8 GW (24.8% of total capacity)
  • Philippines: 3.7 GW (12.8% of total capacity)
  • Myanmar: 3.5 GW (47.9% of total capacity)
  • Vietnam: 7.2 GW (9.5% of total capacity)
  • Brunei Darussalam: 1.1 GW (84.6% of total capacity)
  • Cambodia: 0 GW
  • Lao PDR: 0 GW

• Natural Gas Supply and Reserves (2018-2023):

  • Indonesia and Malaysia hold the largest reserves, accounting for over 50% of ASEAN's total.
  • The region's gas production has declined continuously since 2019.

• Future Projections:

  • Natural gas is expected to see significant capacity additions in Singapore (1.3 GW), Thailand (5.5 GW), and Viet Nam (26 GW) by 2030.
  • Coal is projected to remain the dominant energy source in the industrial sector, with natural gas expected to grow but at a slower pace.
  • The report underscores the need for policy coherence and regional integration to ensure a sustainable and secure energy transition.