【东盟能源数据】天然气在平衡东盟能源转型愿望和能源供应安全方面的作用-2025.1_28页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Role of Natural Gas in Balancing ASEAN's Energy Transition Aspiration and Energy Supply Security

Core Content

This report explores the role of natural gas in ASEAN's energy transition, focusing on its dual function as a transition fuel and a bridge to clean energy, while also addressing the energy supply security concerns of the region. It evaluates current and projected natural gas demand, supply dynamics, and infrastructure development across the ten ASEAN Member States (AMS), highlighting the challenges and opportunities for expanding natural gas use in the context of climate goals and economic growth.

Main Points

1. Natural Gas as a Transition Fuel

Natural gas is positioned as an interim solution in ASEAN's energy transition, offering lower carbon emissions compared to coal and oil.
It is particularly important in power generation due to its flexibility in responding to demand fluctuations and its complementarity with renewable energy sources like solar and wind.
Natural gas supports grid stability and energy security, especially as clean energy technologies develop more slowly due to high costs, insufficient investment, and technical limitations.

2. Current Natural Gas Demand

Natural gas accounts for 20–22% of ASEAN's total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2022, but its usage has stagnated or declined in recent years.
Power generation is the largest consumer of natural gas in the region, followed by industrial sectors.
In 2022, Thailand had the highest natural gas power generation capacity at 30.9 GW (57.8% of total capacity), while Singapore had the highest share (86.9%) and Indonesia had the largest total capacity (20.8 GW or 24.8% of total power generation).

3. Country-Specific Natural Gas Policies

Indonesia: Emphasises domestic natural gas use, including price regulation and LNG import facilities, to support power generation and reduce coal dependence.
Malaysia: Seeks to increase indigenous gas use to facilitate renewable energy integration, with a modest increase in natural gas power capacity.
Thailand: Relies heavily on natural gas for power generation, with projections of significant capacity additions.
Viet Nam: Prioritises domestic gas production and LNG imports to ensure energy security and support industrial growth.
Philippines: Plans to expand natural gas capacity as part of its clean energy transition, with a focus on mid-merit supply.
Singapore: Sees natural gas as a key component of its energy strategy, including for hydrogen production and transport.
Brunei Darussalam: Aims to diversify its economy by promoting downstream industries, such as methanol and fertiliser production.
Myanmar: Has no plans to expand natural gas power generation and is focused on coal and hydropower.
Cambodia and Lao PDR: Have limited domestic production and usage but are planning to integrate natural gas into their energy systems for power generation and industrial development.

4. Supply and Infrastructure Challenges

ASEAN's natural gas production has declined since 2019, with 80% of exports going outside the region.
LNG infrastructure is being developed to diversify supply routes and reduce dependency on single sources.
Pipeline networks are also being expanded to improve regional connectivity and supply security.
Geopolitical uncertainties and regulatory barriers hinder the development of a unified gas market.

5. Future Projections and Policy Recommendations

Natural gas is expected to remain a dominant fuel in power generation, though its share will likely decrease as renewables grow.
Capacity additions in natural gas power plants are projected to be significant in Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam, but limited in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
A market-based pricing system and an integrated gas market are essential for improving efficiency and ensuring supply security.
LNG infrastructure and regulatory reforms are needed to support the transition to cleaner energy and enhance regional cooperation.

Key Information

Demand Outlook

Natural gas is expected to account for 37.4% of the total capacity additions in Viet Nam by 2030.
In Singapore, natural gas is projected to contribute 54.2% of the total power capacity additions between 2022 and 2030.
Thailand plans to add 5.5 GW of natural gas capacity between 2022 and 2030, representing 61.8% of the total new capacity.

Supply Trends

Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest natural gas producers in ASEAN, holding over 50% of the region's reserves.
ASEAN's gas exports are heavily directed outside the region, with 80% of total exports going to non-ASEAN countries.
Net gas exports declined by 13% in 2023 compared to 2022.

Infrastructure Development

LNG infrastructure is being developed to support global trade and diversify supply routes.
Pipeline networks are expanding to enhance regional energy interconnectivity.
Natural gas use in non-power sectors includes chemical industries, transport (CNG), and residential/commercial heating.

Policy Recommendations

Develop an integrated gas market with market-based pricing.
Invest in LNG infrastructure to enhance energy security and diversify supply routes.
Promote regional cooperation in gas infrastructure and trade.
Encourage cleaner technologies and carbon capture to reduce emissions from natural gas use.
Address geopolitical risks and regulatory bottlenecks to support sustainable gas development.

Conclusion

Natural gas plays a strategic role in ASEAN's energy transition, serving as a bridge between fossil fuels and renewables. While it remains a critical component of the energy mix, especially in power generation, its usage has stagnated, and production has declined, raising concerns about supply security and long-term sustainability. To ensure a smooth transition to a low-carbon economy, ASEAN needs to enhance gas infrastructure, promote regional integration, and address regulatory and geopolitical challenges.