20180817-法国巴黎银行-Turkish_Banks_Update_8页_478kb

报告摘要

Turkish Banks Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the Turkish banking sector, focusing on capital buffers, liquidity indicators, wholesale funding, deposit funding, and redemption schedules as of Q2 2018. It also includes a scenario analysis to assess the sensitivity of capital buffers to FX exposure and potential non-performing loan (NPL) increases.

Capital Buffers

As of June 2018, the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) for the deposit banking system is at 15.2%, and the Tier 1 ratio is at 13.1%.
The total Tier 1 capital buffer for the banks under coverage (75% of the sector) is c.TL100bn (c.21.7bn).
On average, the CAR requirement from BRSA is c.12%, and the Tier 1 requirement is c.8%.
Scenario analysis shows that under a 10% FX depreciation, the impact on CAR is 0.6%, and the impact on Tier 1 ratio is 0.6% on average.
After a 3% increase in NPL ratio, the Tier 1 buffer drops to c.73.591bn.

Liquidity

The liquidity indicators of the sector appear healthy as of Q2 18.
Banks are required to calculate liquidity coverage ratios (LCR) on a daily basis.
The FX liquidity coverage ratios hover around 150% - 200%.
The liquidity coverage ratio (FC) for the sector is 152%, while the (TRY+FC) ratio is 152%.
Wholesale liabilities maturing in the next 12 months are covered by liquid assets (Cash, Central Bank and Money Market) for almost all banks.
The Reserve Requirement (RR) cut and changes in the Reserve Option Mechanism (ROM) provided c.$11.2bn additional FX liquidity to the banking sector.
As of Q2 18, the Banking sector has c.$20bn in redemptions on FX funding until the end of 2018.
Banks' FX cash in RR and ROM is currently c.$50bn.

FX Exposure and Sensitivity

FX assets constitute 44% of total assets on average.
FX loans make up 33% of total loans.
The net open FX position / equity ratio is -2% on average, with variations across banks.
The FX sensitivity is highlighted in the table, showing different ratios for each bank.

Deposit Funding

FX adjusted deposit growth in the sector since end July is at -1%.
The data on deposits has a lag, so daily flows from Mutual and Pension Funds are also analyzed.
There are no significant outflows from these systems as of 10 August 2018.

Redemptions

The total outstanding size of eurobond issues of Turkish banks is c.36.5bn.
Remaining redemptions for 2018 are c.1.8bn, and another $6.5bn is due in 2019.
The nearest significant redemptions are in October 2018 for ISCTR (750mn) and VAKBN (500mn), followed by YKBNK (500mn) in December 2018.
April 2019 is expected to have heavy redemptions of c.2.25bn.
The maturity profile of external loans to the Private sector is evenly spread, with October being the heaviest month.

Key Information and Figures

Category	Summary
Capital Buffers	CAR: 15.2%, Tier 1 Ratio: 13.1%
Liquidity	LCR (FC): 150% - 200%, LCR (TRY+FC): 152%
FX Liquidity	Banks have sufficient liquid assets to cover FX wholesale liabilities
FX Exposure	FX ratio in assets: 44%, FX ratio in loans: 33%
Redemption Schedule	Heavy redemptions in April 2019 (c.2.25bn)
Deposit Growth	FX adjusted deposit growth: -1% since end July
Pension and Mutual Fund Flows	No significant outflows observed as of 10 August 2018

Conclusion

The Turkish banking sector as of Q2 2018 shows healthy liquidity and sufficient capital buffers, particularly with FX liquidity being well-covered by liquid assets. The scenario analysis indicates moderate sensitivity to FX exposure and potential NPL increases, suggesting that banks may face challenges if the FX situation deteriorates. Redemption schedules for eurobonds are managed, with heavy redemptions expected in April 2019, highlighting the need for continued monitoring of liquidity and FX risk in the sector.