斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Climate-change-and-violent-conflict_-Sparse-evidence-from-South-Asia-and-South-East-Asia_12页_503kb

Summary: Climate Change and Violent Conflict in South Asia and South East Asia

Core Content

This document examines the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in South Asia and South East Asia, highlighting that while climate-related security risks are increasingly recognized globally, the understanding of their impact in these regions remains limited. The authors conducted a systematic literature review to identify and summarize the existing academic research on this topic, focusing on four key mechanisms that explain how climate-related environmental change can influence the risk and dynamics of violent conflict.

Main Findings

• Climate change is increasingly viewed as a global security risk, with significant implications for both human and natural systems.
• Research on climate-conflict links has predominantly focused on sub-Saharan Africa and East Africa, leaving South Asia and South East Asia underrepresented in academic studies.
• The climate-conflict relationship in these regions is complex and context-specific, influenced by socio-economic, political, and environmental factors.
• There is limited but growing academic research on the topic, with only 21 peer-reviewed articles identified that specifically investigate the link between climate change and violent conflict in the two regions.

Key Mechanisms

The following four mechanisms are identified as central to understanding the climate-conflict link in South Asia and South East Asia:

1. Worsening Livelihood Conditions

• Climate-related events such as droughts, floods, and oceanographic changes can reduce income opportunities from agriculture and fishing.
• This increases the risk of violent conflict, especially in areas where legal income sources are scarce.
• In some cases, climate adaptation strategies can also create new tensions over resource access.
• Rural communities are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on natural resources and limited adaptive capacity.

2. Tactical Considerations by Armed Groups

• Armed groups, including rebel organizations, may use climate-related disruptions as a tactical tool to gain power or resources.
• During droughts, for example, groups may increase violence against civilians to secure food supplies.
• Disaster aid distribution can also be used as a recruitment strategy by both rebel groups and state actors.
• The presence or absence of government control significantly affects the extent to which climate events influence conflict dynamics.

3. Elite Exploitation

• Local elites, such as landowners or corporate entities, can exploit climate-related vulnerabilities to consolidate power.
• They may control disaster aid distribution, thereby influencing conflict outcomes.
• Land scarcity and unequal ownership increase the risk of elite-driven violence and displacement.
• Marginalized communities are especially vulnerable to such exploitation due to their limited access to resources and political power.

4. Processes of Migration

• Climate change can increase migration and displacement, which in turn can exacerbate conflict risks.
• Migration often leads to resource competition and perceived shifts in power balances, especially in resource-dependent and socio-politically unstable areas.
• Inter-ethnic or inter-religious tensions can be heightened by migration, leading to violence and riots in host communities.
• Policy responses must account for the interplay between climate change, migration, and social dynamics.

Critical Observations

• The mechanisms identified are often interlinked, and their effects vary depending on the specific socio-political and climatic context.
• Rapid-onset disasters, such as floods, can increase or decrease conflict risks, depending on local governance and adaptive capacity.
• Conflict in these regions tends to be low-intensity and localized, often tied to seasonal variations and community-level tensions.
• Communal conflicts, riots, and insurgent violence are the most common forms of conflict in the region.
• Systematic research is lacking, which limits the ability to draw broader conclusions or develop effective policy responses.

Implications for Future Research and Policy

• More research is needed to understand the causal pathways and context-specific dynamics of climate-conflict linkages.
• Integrated approaches are essential for assessing climate-security risks and developing appropriate interventions.
• Policy responses should focus on enhancing community resilience, supporting alternative income sources, and improving governance and land rights.
• Disaster preparedness and resource management should be prioritized to mitigate conflict risks.
• Future studies should explore how different regions—even those with similar vulnerabilities—respond to climate stressors in distinct ways.

Conclusion

While the evidence base is sparse, the research conducted thus far confirms that climate-related environmental change can influence the risk and dynamics of violent conflict in South Asia and South East Asia. The study emphasizes the need for more rigorous, context-sensitive research to improve understanding and inform effective policy responses. It also highlights the importance of systemic and integrated approaches to climate-security risks, especially in resource-dependent and socio-politically fragile contexts.