2018年-世界发展银行全球_Strengthening_Conflict_Sensitive_Approaches_to_Climate_Change_in_MENA_3页_371kb

报告摘要

MENA Knowledge and Learning: Strengthening Conflict-Sensitive Approaches to Climate Change

Core Content

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is among the most vulnerable to climate change, facing increasing temperatures, water stress, and extreme weather events. These challenges threaten food and water security, infrastructure, and economic stability, with the poorest and socially marginalized populations being the most affected. Climate change is expected to worsen in the coming decades, increasing pressure on socio-political systems and potentially exacerbating existing fragility and conflict in the region.

Main Points

Climate Change and Conflict

Climate change is not a direct cause of conflict, but it can act as a threat multiplier, intensifying existing issues like political instability, poverty, and unemployment.
Examples such as the conflicts in Yemen and Syria are sometimes linked to climate change, but the underlying causes are complex and include historical and geopolitical factors.
A moderate consensus has emerged that climate change alone is unlikely to generate conflict, but it can increase the likelihood of conflict by straining resources.

Conflict-Sensitive Climate Approaches

A conflict-sensitive approach to climate change emphasizes the need to consider the social, economic, and political context when designing adaptation and mitigation policies.
Poorly designed climate interventions can trigger new conflicts or exacerbate existing ones, especially in fragile and conflict-affected states.
Key examples include:
- Transboundary water management: Adaptation measures in upstream areas can lead to water scarcity in downstream regions, increasing the risk of conflict.
- Land use and resource management: Interventions to rehabilitate rangeland may cause conflict if not aligned with local customs, laws, and community needs.

Key Information

MENA Region's Response to Climate Change

Almost all MENA countries have submitted national climate plans under the Paris Agreement.
The World Bank has developed a Climate Action Plan for the MENA region to increase climate financing and focus on adaptation and resilience, especially for the most vulnerable populations.

Case Studies

Iraq

Climate Vulnerability: Increasing temperatures, water scarcity, and extreme weather events threaten agriculture, water supply, and public health.
Project: The Iraq Social Fund for Development (approved in February 2018) finances subprojects that integrate climate adaptation.
Key Activities:
- Rehabilitation and maintenance of irrigation canals, drainage structures, and roads.
- Construction of small-scale water supply and reservoirs.
Expected Outcomes:
- Improved agricultural productivity.
- Enhanced infrastructure resilience to extreme weather.
- Increased access to water resources.
Impact: The $300 million project is expected to benefit 1.5 million households and create over 10 million employment days.
Community Engagement: Inclusive participation of local representatives, including women, is essential for effective and conflict-sensitive implementation.

Djibouti

Climate Vulnerability: High poverty rates, unemployment, and limited access to water resources are exacerbated by climate change.
Project: The Rural Community Development and Water Mobilization Project (PRODERMO) focuses on improving water access and management in rural areas.
Key Activities:
- Promotion of innovative water mobilization techniques.
- Construction and rehabilitation of cisterns, open-air reservoirs, wells, and fisheries.
- Strengthening fragile institutions and public services.
Expected Outcomes:
- Increased access to water for rural communities.
- Enhanced capacity for managing agro-pastoral resources.
Impact: Over 6100 households have benefited from the project.
Community Engagement: Women have been significantly involved in planning and decision-making, contributing to improved social cohesion and productivity.

Conclusion

The examples from Iraq and Djibouti demonstrate progress in addressing climate challenges in fragile and conflict-affected contexts.
Community ownership and inclusive engagement are crucial for successful implementation.
The use of technology, big data, and advanced modeling can provide targeted guidance for climate policy and adaptation strategies.
These approaches help avoid unintended consequences and support long-term environmental and social sustainability.