亚开行-亚洲低碳转型：贸易的机遇与挑战（英）-2023.6-44页_1mb

Summary of ADB Working Paper No. 686: Asia’s Low-Carbon Transition: Opportunities and Challenges for Trade

Key Findings

1. Green Trade Growth:

   • Asia’s share in global green trade increased significantly since the early 2010s. The region dominated over 50% of world green trade volume (across classifications), with exports and imports growing faster in some sectors than globally.
   • While green exports rose steadily, green imports grew at an accelerated rate, indicating potential competitiveness erosion in certain areas.

2. Inconsistent Definitions:

   • Green trade patterns vary significantly depending on the classification framework (e.g., U.S. BLS GGS, OECD ENV-Tech, OECD CLEG), highlighting the need for an international consensus on green industry definitions to accurately measure trends.

3. Industry Focus:

   • Manufacturing (especially machinery/electric equipment) and green technologies constitute the largest share of Asian green trade. Fuels, mining, and agriculture show limited growth or deviations in trends based on classification.

4. Trade Patterns:

   • Bilateral trade analysis shows Asia’s economic influence within the region expanded, but classification differences affect trade balance interpretations. Exports to non-Asian economies also rose, suggesting Asia’s role in shaping global green markets.

5. Challenges and Opportunities:

   • Low-carbon policies (e.g., carbon tariffs, NTMs) may hinder trade in high-emission sectors but offer new market opportunities in green goods/services.
   • Asia, particularly economies with carbon-intensive industries (e.g., steel), must balance competitiveness with compliance and invest in innovation to avoid stranded assets.

Policy Implications

• Harmonization: Global consensus on green industry classifications is critical for accurate trade analysis and policy implementation.
• Infrastructure/Certification: Strengthen technical infrastructure and align with international standards to reduce trade barriers.
• Just Transition: Provide financial and technical support for carbon-intensive industries to ease the transition and retain competitiveness.
• Strategic Adaptation: Focus on green innovation, renewable technologies, and digital infrastructure to capitalize on emerging markets.

Conclusion

Asia’s low-carbon transition presents both risks and opportunities in trade. While the region leads in green trade growth, misaligned policies, inconsistent definitions, and outdated infrastructure may threaten competitiveness. Proactive international cooperation, harmonized green standards, and targeted investments can position Asia as a key player in sustainable global trade.