2021-12-02-DNV-净零排放路径—全球能源转型展望2021_94页_47mb

Summary of "PATHWAY TO NET ZERO EMISSIONS"

Core Content

This document outlines a plausible pathway for achieving net zero emissions by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as defined by the Paris Agreement. It contrasts this pathway with DNV's Energy Transition Outlook (ETO), which predicts a more likely outcome of 2.3°C of warming by the end of the century. The report emphasizes that while technological and economic feasibility exist, policy implementation and behavioral changes are essential to close the gap between the current trajectory and the net zero target.

Main Viewpoints

• Global net zero is achievable but requires significant effort, especially from developed nations and sectors that can go below zero emissions before 2050.
• Rapid and large-scale decarbonization is necessary across all sectors and regions, with policy mandates, carbon pricing, and bans playing a critical role.
• Renewable electricity (wind and solar) will dominate the energy mix, contributing 86% of electricity supply by 2050.
• Fossil fuels will still account for 21% of the global energy mix in 2050, necessitating carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon removal to make up the remaining 20% of emissions cuts.
• Behavioral changes are important, such as reducing air travel and increasing the use of electricity and hydrogen in transport and other sectors.
• Time is the critical constraint, not capital, and early action is essential to avoid the rising costs of inaction.
• The pathway is not the most likely, but a plausible and techno-economic feasible route, and requires international cooperation, technology transfer, and financial support for developing regions.

Key Information

• Global CO₂ emissions in the ETO forecast are expected to be 18.6 Gt/year by 2050, while the net zero pathway requires a reduction of 22.9 Gt/year in 2050, creating a gap of 4.3 Gt/year.
• Cumulative emissions by 2050 under the ETO are 690 Gt CO₂, far exceeding the 1.5°C carbon budget, which would be exhausted by 2029.
• The net zero pathway requires 80–95% emissions cuts in hard-to-abate sectors, with electricity and hydrogen playing a central role in decarbonization.
• Methane emissions and land use changes (AFOLU) are also crucial, as they significantly impact the feasibility of achieving the 1.5°C target.
• Technology scale-up and policy coordination are key to making the pathway viable, with COP26 being a pivotal moment for global cooperation.
• The costs of the net zero pathway are estimated to be close to 1% of global GDP, which is a significant but manageable investment.

Sector Roadmaps

The report includes detailed sector-specific strategies for achieving net zero:

• Road transport: Shift to electricity and hydrogen, with policies to reduce air travel.
• Maritime: Electrification and hydrogen use, alongside improved efficiency.
• Aviation: Reduction in flights and adoption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
• Buildings heating: Increased use of electricity and hydrogen, along with energy efficiency improvements.
• Manufacturing: Decarbonization of iron & steel, cement, and petrochemicals through renewables, hydrogen, and CCS.
• Power: Dominated by renewables, with nuclear playing a smaller role.
• Hydrogen: A major part of the energy mix, with green hydrogen being the primary source.
• Carbon capture and storage (CCS): A critical tool for achieving net negative emissions post-2050, particularly in power, manufacturing, and hydrogen production.
• Energy efficiency: Essential for reducing demand and supporting decarbonization.

Regional Roadmaps

The report outlines roadmaps for all ten world regions, including:

• North America and Europe: Need to achieve zero emissions by 2042.
• Greater China: Target is 98% emissions reduction by 2050.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Will only achieve 23% emissions reduction by 2050, requiring external support.
• Indian Subcontinent: Expected to reduce emissions by 64% by 2050.
• Middle East and North Africa: Still rely heavily on fossil fuels in the power sector, though this will decline.
• Other regions (OECD Pacific, North East Eurasia, etc.) have varying starting points and decarbonization rates.

Challenges and Considerations

• Behavioral changes are necessary, such as reducing flying, increasing electrification, and practicing circularity.
• Technology maturity and policy implementation are crucial for achieving the pathway, especially for developing regions.
• Just transition is a concept that is not directly modeled due to the complexity and likelihood of wealth redistribution over the next 30 years.
• Time is the main constraint, and the "decade of action" must begin immediately with high speed and scale.
• Global cooperation and policy alignment are essential, with COP26 being a key opportunity for coordination.

Conclusion

The Pathway to Net Zero Emissions is a plausible and technically feasible route to achieving the 1.5°C target, but it requires strong policy support, behavioral shifts, and international collaboration. While developed regions and sectors must go below zero, developing regions will need external assistance. The gap between current emissions and net zero is substantial and must be closed through massive investments, policy interventions, and behavioral changes. The 1.5°C target is within reach if all actors take responsible and coordinated action.