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China/Hong Kong Consumer Industry Summary

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of the China/Hong Kong consumer industry as of September 8, 2025, with a focus on new consumption stocks and sub-sectors, macroeconomic drivers, valuation metrics, and performance trends.

Main Points

1. New Consumption Companies

• Key New Consumption Stocks: Pop Mart, Bloks, Mixue, Guming, Giant Biogene, Weilong, Maogeping, Yantai China Pet, Gambol Pet, and Laopu Gold.
• Performance Trends:
  • YTD Share Price Performance: The New Consumption stocks have shown varied performance, with some experiencing significant growth and others declining.
  • Anti-Involution Policy Impact: Share prices of New Consumption stocks showed a noticeable change before and after the announcement of the policy, indicating market sensitivity.
• Earnings Growth (2024-2026E): The estimated CAGR for earnings is presented, showing different growth rates across the sub-sectors.
• Valuation Metrics (NTM P/E): New Consumption stocks are compared with the MSCI China index, highlighting their premiums and discounts relative to the industry average.

2. Consumer Segment Performance (2025 YTD)

• Key Sub-sectors:
  • Mass Beauty: P/E of 29x
  • IP Product: P/E of 28x
  • HPC: P/E of 22x
  • Seasoning: P/E of 21x
  • Food Retail: P/E of 19x
  • Other Liquor: P/E of 18x
  • Beer: P/E of 18x
  • Small Home Appliance: P/E of 18x
  • Consumer Sector: P/E of 17x
  • Premium Liquor: P/E of 16x
  • F&B: P/E of 16x
  • Restaurant: P/E of 15x
  • Sports Wear: P/E of 15x
  • Gold & Jewellery: P/E of 15x
  • OEM: P/E of 13x
  • Home Improvement: P/E of 13x
  • Dairy: P/E of 13x
  • IMF: P/E of 12x
  • Upstream: P/E of 11x
• P/E Premium/Discount:
  • Some sub-sectors are below the 15-year average (e.g., Mass Beauty: -10.6%)
  • Others are above (e.g., Sports Wear: +3.3%)
  • Gold & Jewellery shows a significant premium compared to the 15-year minimum.

3. Macro Drivers

• GDP and CPI: Indicates the overall economic health and inflation trends.
• CPI-PPI and GPM: Shows the relationship between inflation and growth.
• Consumer Credit: Reflects consumer spending power and loan trends.
• Wealth Effect from Capital Markets: Highlights the impact of market performance on consumer confidence.

4. Consumer Spending Trends

• Retail Sales (July-25):
  • Overall Retail Sales: 3.7% YoY growth in July 2025.
  • Restaurant & Dining: 1.1% YoY growth.
  • Apparel, Shoes & Textiles: 1.8% YoY growth.
  • Gold & Jewellery: 8.2% YoY growth.
  • Cosmetics: 4.5% YoY growth.
  • Home Furnishing: 20.6% YoY growth.
  • F&B: 6.9% YoY growth.
• CAGR vs. 2019:
  • Overall Retail Sales: 2.7% CAGR.
  • Restaurant & Dining: 3.5% CAGR.
  • Apparel, Shoes & Textiles: 0.5% CAGR.
  • Gold & Jewellery: 4.0% CAGR.
  • F&B: 8.3% CAGR.
• Key Macro Data Tracker:
  • Household Financial Situation (Net): Fluctuating between 32% to 40%.
  • N3M Spending Increase Intention: Ranging from 7% to 23%.
  • Job Confidence: Varying from 40% to 59%.
  • Employment Rate: 13% to 18%.
  • New-Econ Avg. Salary YoY Growth: Ranging from -11% to -3%.
  • Household Savings Rate: 33% to 34%.
  • Growth: Fluctuating between -3.6% and -0.1%.

5. Ownership and Valuation

• Southbound Ownership:
  • Average Southbound ownership as % of free float for consumer H-shares.
• Institutional Investor Holdings:
  • Reflects the market's institutional sentiment towards consumer stocks.
• P/E vs. Earnings Growth by Segment:
  • Highlights the valuation dynamics of different sub-sectors.

6. Revenue and Earnings Growth Estimates

• Average Revenue and Earnings Growth:
  • For consumer stocks, the growth estimates are provided, showing different trends across the segments.
• Sales Growth by Consumer Segment Through Cycles:
  • Indicates the performance of different segments over time.

7. YUMC Performance

• SSSG (Same Store Sales Growth):
  • YUMC and its brands show performance metrics, including traffic and pricing.
• AUV (Average Unit Value):
  • Indicates the average spending per unit for YUMC and its brands.

Key Insights

• The consumer industry is showing mixed performance, with some New Consumption stocks experiencing strong growth while others are underperforming.
• Valuation metrics indicate that certain segments are undervalued or overvalued compared to historical averages.
• Macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, CPI, and consumer credit are influencing the sector's performance and investor sentiment.
• Retail sales trends show that non-essential categories like cosmetics and apparel are growing more slowly compared to essential goods like food and beverages.
• Consumer confidence and employment trends are key factors affecting spending intentions and overall market performance.

Conclusion

The China/Hong Kong consumer industry is shaped by a mix of new consumption trends, macroeconomic factors, and valuation dynamics. While some segments show strong performance and valuation premiums, others are facing challenges. Investors should consider these divergent trends and economic indicators when making investment decisions.