2025-06-10-花旗集团-腾讯音乐娱乐（TME）_腾讯音乐娱乐（TME.N）_关于腾讯音乐娱乐拟收购喜马拉雅的思考_11页_320kb

Citi Research maintains a Buy recommendation on Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) following the announcement of its proposed acquisition of Ximalaya. The acquisition involves a combination of US$1.26 billion cash and new shares, valuing Ximalaya at approximately US$2.7-2.8 billion pending regulatory approvals. Citi is positive on the deal, believing it will strengthen TME's long-form audio and podcast positioning, enrich its content offerings, enhance monetization through integration with the broader Tencent ecosystem, and expand Ximalaya's user reach. Valuation targets a price of US$17.0 based on 18x projected 2026 earnings, with expected performance indicating downside risks due to potential slower growth, regulatory challenges, and market volatility.

Ximalaya, the largest online audio platform in China, has strong user metrics (e.g., 303 million monthly active users in 2023) and revenue streams (subscriptions, ads, live streaming). Citi highlights risks such as declining user subscriptions, slower monetization, and increased regulation that could hinder TME's stock performance or the acquisition's success. The deal shows optimism for TME's resilient subscription revenues and overall entertainment strategy.