2025-06-11-花旗集团-全球供应链研究要点_12页_1mb

Global Supply Chain Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a weekly summary of global supply chain research highlights, focusing on Brazil's railroads and shipping logistics, global shipping trends, and specific equity recommendations. It also includes important disclosures and analyst certification details regarding Citi Research.

Brazil Railroads and Shipping - Grains Logistics Tracker

Key Trends

• Truckers' Margins: Continued to rise in key agricultural routes, with notable increases in both weekly and 4-week periods.
  • As of May 9th: Margins increased +0.56% w-o-w and +3.6% w-o-4w.
  • As of June 6th: Margins accelerated to +1.8p.p. w-o-w and +4.8p.p. w-o-4w.
• Diesel Prices: Declined, which has put downward pressure on tariffs, but margins have remained strong.
• Corn Harvesting: Approaching, with less than 1% harvested so far, but expected to increase, supporting logistics demand.
• Soy Exports: Gaining traction in both North and South corridors, contributing to freight market pressure.
• Rumo: Positive sentiment around tariffs and volumes, with a 30-day Catalyst Watch opened due to potential short-term stock performance boost.

Supporting Charts

• Truckers' margins for key agricultural routes (multiple images provided).

Global Shipping - Weekly Updates

Freight Rates

• June Capacity Growth: +12% YoY (vs. +10% in May).
• July Capacity Growth: +14% YoY (vs. +14% in June).
• Air Freight Rates:
  • April: +2% YoY (vs. +4% YoY in March).
  • May: -2% YoY (vs. +1% YoY in April).
  • July: -1% YoY (vs. +2% YoY in April).

Key Events

• Virtual Logistics Trip: Citi invited attendees to a 2025 Virtual Logistics trip on June 2-4, featuring major logistics companies.

Supporting Charts

• Container Rates Futures (Asia-Europe)
• China Weekly Container Throughput & China to US Containership (TEU)
• Air Cargo Chargeable Weight YoY
• Global Average Air Freight Rate ($/kg)
• US Weekly B2B & B2C Import (TEU)
• China Weekly Container Throughput & China to US Containership (TEU)

Equity Recommendations

Makalot (1477.TW)

• May-25 Sales: NT $2.5 bn, down 8% y/y.
• Reasons for Decline:
  • Weak shipment (-3% y/y).
  • Negative FX (-6% y/y).
• ASP Increase: +0.5% y/y.
• Outlook: Sales/earnings may be negatively impacted by tariff risks and FX headwinds.
• Rating: Retain Sell.
• Target Price: NT $255.00.

Nien Made (8464.TW)

• Tax Credits: Selected products now eligible for 30% US tax credit with an annual max of $1,200.
• Valuation: Trading at 18x, considered undemanding.
• Rating: Reiterate Buy.
• Target Price: NT $510.00.

Catalyst Watch and Investment Ratings

• Catalyst Watch: Indicates expected share price movement over 30 or 90 days due to specific events.
• Investment Ratings: Include Buy, Neutral, and Sell, based on expected total return and risk.
• Risk Ratings: Optional, indicating high risk stocks based on price volatility and fundamentals.
• Citi Research Equity Ratings Distribution (as of 01 Apr 2025):
  • Buy: 58% (with 37% of these being investment banking clients)
  • Hold: 33% (with 39% of these being investment banking clients)
  • Sell: 9% (with 29% of these being investment banking clients)
  • Catalyst Watch (Buy): 36%
  • Catalyst Watch (Hold): 48%
  • Catalyst Watch (Sell): 17%

Important Disclosures

• Conflict of Interest: Citi Research may have business relationships with companies covered in reports, which could affect objectivity.
• Research Independence: Analysts certify that research is prepared independently and not influenced by compensation.
• Liquidity and Trading: Citi may act as a liquidity provider or principal in transactions related to covered securities.
• Disclosure Website: https://www.citivelocity.com/cvr/epublic/citi_research_disclosures
• ETF Information: Any ETF-related information is for illustrative purposes only and not an offer to sell or purchase.
• Legal and Regulatory: Information is subject to change and must be reviewed in light of the investor's own financial status and preferences.

Analyst Certification

• Responsible Analysts: Identified by "AC" in the author block or listed in bold alongside content.
• Certification: Analysts certify that the views in the report accurately reflect their personal views and were prepared independently.

Risk and Compliance Notes

• No Guarantee: Forecasts and past performance are not guarantees of future results.
• Investor Advisory: Investors should consult their legal counsel for compliance with economic sanctions and other regulations.
• Compliance with Regulations: Includes disclosures for Israel, Turkey, and the U.S. regarding investment advice and restrictions.

Conclusion

The document outlines the current state of Brazil's agricultural logistics, global shipping trends, and specific equity recommendations. It emphasizes the ongoing upward trend in truckers' margins and the potential for increased freight demand due to the approaching corn harvest and rising soy exports. Analysts also highlight the importance of considering macroeconomic factors, FX movements, and potential catalysts when making investment decisions. Key disclosures regarding conflicts of interest, research independence, and regulatory compliance are provided to ensure transparency.