2025-06-11-花旗集团-印度马鲁蒂铃木（MRTI）_印度马鲁蒂铃木公司（MRTI.BO）_稀土供应链中断影响eVitara的生产_10页_337kb

Key Issues

• Rare Earth Supply Chain Disruption: A disruption in the rare earth supply chain could negatively impact auto production in India, specifically electric vehicles (EVs), as highlighted in Citi's report.

Production Impact

• Revised eVitara Targets: Maruti Suzuki India has lowered the production target for its eVitara EV. Originally, it aimed for ~26,512 units in 1HFY26, but this was revised down to ~8,221 units to address the supply shortfalls. Production is expected to ramp up in 2HFY26 to ~58,728 units, aligning with the original full-year target of 67k units.

Valuation and Target Price

• Target Price: Citi Research sets a target price of Rs13,900, based on a 24x EV/EBIT valuation multiple for FY26E. This reflects core operating profitability, considering accounting changes post-IndAS adoption.
• P/E Multiple: The target implies a P/E ratio of ~31x for Sep26E, which is higher than the average 28x over the past five years due to continued challenges in small car demand, competition, and margin pressures. Adjustments were made to account for the Gujarat plant acquisition, which stabilizes EBIT compared to EBITDA.

Key Risks

• Downside Factors: Risks include subdued consumer sentiment leading to weaker industry demand, high competitive pressures potentially eroding pricing and margins, and input cost increases due to commodities or conversion costs.