2025-06-26-世界卫生组织-Independent_assessment_of_the_origins_of_SARS‑CoV‑2_78页_928kb

SARS-CoV-2起源独立评估报告（WHO-SAGO，2025）

4 背景与目标

这份报告是世界卫生组织于2021年建立的科学咨询小组（SAGO）对新冠病毒（SARS-CoV-2）起源进行的独立评估。评估基于截至2025年初公开和可获取的所有科学证据，重点分析了研究路线、政策框架及当前知识缺口。本评估旨在通过系统分析科学材料，提供建议以缩小当前的证据空白，从而促进对COVID-19起源的理解，并为未来大流行预防提供参考。

5 主要发现

5.1 成都市华南海鲜市场与起源相关性

所有评估均基于截至2025年初公开和可获取的所有科学证据。2019年，成都华南海鲜市场（Huanan Seafood Market, HSM）的关闭和调查揭示了多个与SARS-CoV-2有关的发现，包括动物样本检测、环境样本检测、病毒基因组分析。尽管标记有SARS-CoV-2的鼻咽拭子样本和部分动物组织样本被发现，但明确的病毒溢出事件尚未确定。早期病例的时间线不明确，病例与市场的关联性存在疑问。

5.2 病毒的动物与人源起源理论

Despite the vast amount of research on the virus, no single hypothesis has been definitively ruled out or confirmed. The group considered two primary hypotheses regarding the virus’s emergence into humans: 1) natural zoonotic spillover from animals via market activity or contact with infected animals; and 2) laboratory-related incidents.

5.3 早期动物检测情况

The assessment of animal infection experiments and reverse zoonoses highlighted several key points: laboratory studies have identified numerous animal species susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, which could provide a reservoir for transmission. Genetic recombination plays a significant role in viral evolution and may explain its unique features; however, current genome data was insufficient to pinpoint the exact evolutionary pathways.

5.4 原始生态位探索：蝙蝠与野生动物

The report confirmed that SARS-CoV-2 shares a high genomic similarity with several bat coronaviruses identified in Laos (96.8%) and China (96.1%). Analysis of genomic data, serological studies, and surveillance found numerous candidate animals that could have acted as intermediate hosts, including raccoon dogs, pangolins, civets, and mink. However, comprehensive surveillance has not yet been conducted on all potentially relevant animal sources.

5.5 实验室安全评估与国际政策建议

No evidence was found to support a laboratory leak. SAGO recommended expanded international cooperation on biosafety standards and continued surveillance of the laboratory practices in Wuhan and elsewhere.

6 主要结论与研究缺口

6.1 重要结论

1. 自然溢出的科学支持: available evidence supports a zoonotic origin and pre-market amplification likely at the Huanan market. Despite these findings, the precise timing and specific animal reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 introduction remain unknown.

2. 实验室事件的情境分析: The available evidence neither supports nor rules out the possibility of a laboratory-related incident. However, key data—including biosafety records, laboratory practices, and health surveillance—remain unavailable.

3. 当前数据缺口: Significant data gaps exist in multiple domains, including information on primary cases, animal testing protocols, evolution in intermediate hosts, and specific laboratory incident investigations.

7 推荐研究方向与未来展望

1. Conduct further genomic analysis in collaboration with geographically relevant institutions.
2. Expand serological and molecular surveillance in humans and animals.
3. Implement enhanced laboratory safety monitoring protocols and international biosecurity standards.
4. Investigate reverse zoon transmissions and broaden animal monitoring programs beyond reported case clusters.

进一步的研究是理解COVID-19起源不可或缺的关键一步。特别是在数据收集合作和透明研究框架下的协作机制，对未来全球健康安全至关重要。