2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_IMF_Office_in_FYR_Macedonia_4页_335kb

IMF Summary: Engagement with Macedonia

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) continues to be actively engaged with Macedonia despite the discontinuation of its Resident Representative in August 2016. Jesmin Rahman, the IMF Mission Chief for Macedonia, emphasizes that this decision does not signify a withdrawal of support but rather a shift in the IMF's presence due to the absence of an ongoing program. The IMF remains closely monitoring the country's economic and political developments, maintaining a local office to ensure effective surveillance and provide technical assistance.

Main Dangers and Concerns

Rahman identifies two primary dangers affecting Macedonia:

• Political Uncertainty and Instability: Prolonged political instability and uncertainty have negatively impacted investor confidence and growth. Investors are wary of unpredictability, which could lead to a significant decline in foreign direct investment.
• EU Aspirations at Risk: Failure to address key institutional and governance reforms may delay Macedonia's progress towards EU membership, which is a long-standing goal of the country.

Fiscal and Debt Issues

• Borrowing Costs: There are uncertainties regarding Macedonia's ability to access the international market due to the domestic political situation and the rise in US interest rates.
• Fiscal Financing Needs: The country's gross fiscal financing needs for 2017 are estimated at 14% of GDP (approximately EUR 1.4 billion).
• Public Debt Concerns: Public debt as a share of GDP has increased from 23% pre-2008 to an estimated 46% in 2016, doubling in 8 years. The IMF warns that the rapid accumulation of debt and its inefficient use are major concerns.
• Debt Threshold: While there is no universally agreed safe debt threshold, the IMF suggests a prudent range of 50-60% of GDP for emerging market economies. For Macedonia, given its fixed exchange rate regime and future fiscal liabilities, the lower end of this range is recommended.

Economic Reforms Priorities

Rahman outlines three key reform priorities for the new government:

1. Labor Market Reforms:

   • Macedonia has one of the highest unemployment rates in Europe (24%).
   • A large portion of the unemployed are long-term and low-skilled.
   • Investment in training, active labor market policies, and education is needed to better match skills with job market demands.

2. Governance Reforms:

   • These are critical for improving Macedonia's image as an investment destination.
   • Actions are needed in the areas of rule of law, voice and accountability, and control of corruption.

3. Fiscal Policy Space:

   • Increasing tax and expenditure efficiencies is necessary to create fiscal policy space.
   • This will help counter economic downturns and support infrastructure and aging-related spending.

Growth Projections and Risks

• The IMF projects a pick-up in growth assuming the return of political stability and the formation of a new government.
• In the 2016 staff report, real GDP growth was projected to reach 3.2% in 2017 after a dip in 2016.
• However, with ongoing political uncertainties, there are significant downside risks to this growth projection.

IMF Engagement and Technical Assistance

• The IMF has conducted seven expert visits to Macedonia in the past six months, providing technical assistance in areas such as tax administration, debt management, and governance finance statistics.
• A short staff visit is planned for the summer, possibly after the formation of the new government.
• The IMF maintains a fully-staffed local office to ensure continued engagement and support for Macedonia.