2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Electricity_Sector_in_FYR_Macedonia_21页_1000kb

Summary of "The Electricity Sector in FYR Macedonia" by Alexander F. Tieman

Core Content

The paper provides an analysis of the electricity sector in FYR Macedonia, highlighting the country's transition from a centrally planned system to a regulated free market, driven by European Union (EU) integration and the Energy Community Treaty (ECT). It outlines the current state of the sector, structural reforms, subsidy trends, and future policy directions.

Main Points

I. Introduction and Summary

• Sector Transition: The Macedonian electricity sector is transitioning from a centrally planned and managed system to a decentralized, regulated free market.
• Key Challenges:
  • Demand Side: Inefficient energy usage due to below-market pricing, especially for non-large users.
  • Supply Side: Limited domestic generation capacity, aging facilities, and reliance on imported electricity.
• Recent Reforms:
  • Implicit electricity subsidies have decreased from 3.8% of GDP in 2008 to 0.7% in 2010.
  • The privatization of distribution in 2006 and the liberalization of the market for the 10 largest users have helped reduce losses and improve efficiency.
• Future Outlook:
  • Full liberalization of the electricity market is expected by 2015.
  • Market-based pricing, energy efficiency measures, and improved collection enforcement are key to controlling demand.
  • Gasification and renewable energy development (especially hydro) are expected to reduce energy demand and increase supply.

II. The Electricity Sector

A. Demand and Supply

• Demand Trends:
  • Electricity demand increased by 34% between 2000 and 2008.
  • In 2009, demand dropped due to a collapse in heavy industry exports.
  • By 2009, heavy industry accounted for 17% of total consumption, while regulated consumers (households, SMEs, and small industry) accounted for 80%.
• Supply Trends:
  • Domestic supply has decreased slightly over the period, with imports making up the difference.
  • Total imports averaged 20% of demand (1,468 GWh) between 2000 and 2009, peaking at 32% in 2008.
• Generation Sources:
  • Mainly thermal (lignite) and hydroelectric.
  • Thermal plants are inefficient and polluting, while hydroelectricity accounts for 20% of total generation.
  • There are plans for geothermal and small wind farms.

B. Market Structure

• The electricity market is divided into three segments:
  • Tariff customers: Households and small industry/SMEs, connected to low-voltage grids, pay regulated prices.
  • Eligible customers: The 10 largest industrial users, connected to high-voltage grids, operate in a liberalized market since September 2008.
  • ELEM (Electric Power Stations of Macedonia): State-owned generator and monopoly wholesale supplier.
  • MEPSO (Macedonian Electricity Transmission System Operator): Sole operator of the transmission network.
  • EVN (Electricity Distribution Company): Retail distributor, privatized in 2006 and sold to EVN Austria.
• Regulation: Prices and services are regulated by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), which is independent and reports directly to parliament.
• Legal Issues: Ongoing disputes between EVN and ELEM, as well as the government, over uncollected receivables from before privatization, which could affect foreign investment confidence.

C. Plans for the Future

• Hydro Expansion:
  • The Strategy for Energy Development (MANU, 2010) aims to expand hydro generation capacity.
  • The largest hydro project under tender is for two dams at Cebren and Galiste, with an estimated investment of €700 million and net generation capacity of 320–420 GWh.
  • Other hydro projects include Boskov Most (68 MW, €83 million), Lukovo Pole and Crn Kamen (8 MW, €53 million), and Gradec (55 MW, €203 million).
• Interconnections:
  • The government is working to improve regional interconnections to reduce power import costs and ensure supply security.
• Legal Reforms:
  • A new Energy Law is being drafted to align with ECT obligations, including full liberalization by 2015.
  • The law aims to address market structure, cost reflectivity, and liberalization deadlines.

Key Information

III. European Integration is Driving Electricity Reform

• Energy Community Treaty (ECT):
  • Macedonia is a signatory, committing to implement the EU acquis on energy.
  • The ECT aims to create an integrated regional energy market, attract investment, and promote environmental sustainability.
• Policy Objectives:
  • Secure reliable and affordable energy supply for SEE countries.
  • Reduce environmental impact through efficiency and renewable energy use.
• Legal Framework:
  • The ECT includes a dispute settlement procedure to enforce its legal obligations.
  • Macedonia has made progress in implementing ECT, including the adoption of an Energy Law in 2006 and amendments in 2008.

IV. Subsidies are Declining

• Subsidy Trends:
  • Implicit electricity subsidies have declined significantly, from 3.8% of GDP in 2008 to 0.7% in 2010.
  • The decline is attributed to lower regional energy prices, higher domestic prices for subsidized users, and market liberalization.
• Subsidy Calculation:
  • Based on the difference between the regulated price and the regional market price.
  • In 2009, the regulated price was €30 per MWh, while the regional market price was €63 per MWh.
  • Transmission costs (€4 per MWh) are included in the import price but not in the opportunity cost calculation.
• Subsidy Impact:
  • Total subsidies amounted to 2.3% of GDP (€150 million) in 2009.
  • Subsidized imports accounted for 0.2% of GDP (€12 million).
• Policy Implications:
  • Subsidies are inefficient and distort market incentives.
  • Full liberalization by 2015 is expected to lead to a 40% tariff increase over five years.
  • Social assistance programs will be needed to protect poorer households from price increases.

Conclusion

• Long-Term Outlook:
  • The electricity sector is expected to benefit from full liberalization, which will improve efficiency, attract investment, and reduce environmental impact.
  • Continued focus on renewable energy (especially hydro), energy efficiency, and regional interconnections is essential.
• Policy Options:
  • Implementing the new Energy Law to meet ECT obligations.
  • Increasing social assistance for vulnerable households.
  • Resolving legal disputes to enhance investor confidence.
  • Ensuring cost reflectivity in regulated prices to support sustainable investment.

References

• Table 1: Electricity Consumption and Generation, 2000–2010 (GWh)
• Table 2: Subsidies and Losses in the Electricity Sector, 2008–2010
• Table 3: Subsidies and Losses in the Electricity Sector, Scenarios for 2015
• Figure 1: Electricity Demand and Supply, 2000–2010