2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Former_Yugoslav_Republic_of_Macedonia_Selected_Issues_25页_1mb

Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Public Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth

Core Content

This document, titled IMF Country Report No. 16/357, presents an analysis of the impact of public infrastructure investment on economic growth in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYM). It also examines the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on growth and employment, highlighting the importance of improving public investment efficiency and managing the associated costs.

Main Points

A. Public Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth

• Need for Infrastructure: FYR Macedonia has a strong need for transport infrastructure improvements due to its small, open, and land-locked economy. Better connectivity is crucial for driving long-term economic growth.
• Current Infrastructure Status: The country's logistics and transport infrastructure scores are among the lowest in the region. Road quality is below average, and the share of paved roads is low.
• Investment Trends: Public expenditure on transport infrastructure averaged 1% of GDP between 2005 and 2013. For 2014–2018, it is expected to rise to 2–3% of GDP annually, more than doubling the historical average.
• Key Projects: The analysis focuses on four major projects:
  • Motorway Section: Miladinovci - Sveti Nikole - Shtip (€226.7 million)
  • Motorway Section: Kichevo - Ohrid (€411.3 million)
  • Motorway Corridor X Section: Demir Kapija - Smokvica (€245.0 million)
  • Railway Corridor VIII Section: Kriva Palanka - Beljakovce (€140.0 million)
• Financing: These projects are mostly financed by foreign creditors (EBRD, EIB, China EXIM Bank) and are carried out by state-owned enterprises (e.g., PESR), outside the central government budget.
• Growth Effects:
  • Short-term: Direct growth effects from public investment are estimated at 0.25% of GDP annually (2014–2018), accounting for half of the total growth effect.
  • Medium-term: Spillovers from public investments, such as increased private investment and consumption, account for the remaining half of the growth effect.
  • Overall: The four projects are likely to raise the real GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points annually for 2014–2020.
• Public Investment Efficiency: FYR Macedonia's public investment efficiency is estimated at 55% of South Africa's (which is set at 100%). Improving this efficiency could increase the growth effect to 0.8 percentage points annually.
• Fiscal Implications: Public infrastructure investment increases public debt, which is expected to rise from 1.1% of GDP in 2013 to over 7% by 2018, and to 54% of GDP by 2021. This poses fiscal risks, especially due to currency mismatch and the need for long-term maintenance costs.
• Long-term Impact: Public infrastructure investment puts the economy on a higher growth trajectory. By 2020, real GDP is expected to be 4% higher than in the absence of such investments.

B. FDI Spillovers on Growth and Employment

• FDI Inflows: FYR Macedonia has attracted significant FDI inflows over the past decade, though less than its CESEE peers.
• Sources and Sectors: FDI inflows are mainly from EU countries and are concentrated in the manufacturing sector. Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands are the largest contributors.
• FDI Instruments: FDI inflows have shifted from equity to inter-company loans over time.
• Positive Impacts: FDI has notable positive impacts on growth, employment, and exports. It also contributes to productivity improvements through technology transfer, professional management, and skill development.
• Fiscal Costs: FDI incentives have generated some fiscal costs. The share of debt in FDI needs monitoring due to the risk of currency mismatch.
• Unemployment: FDI can be a key policy tool to tackle high unemployment, especially when complemented by labor market and institutional reforms.

Key Information

• Public Infrastructure Projects: Four major projects are analyzed, with an estimated total investment of 2–3% of GDP annually for 2014–2018.
• Model-Based Simulation: The analysis uses a neo-classical growth model augmented with public capital to estimate growth effects.
• Public Investment Efficiency: FYR Macedonia's efficiency is 55% of South Africa's, with room for improvement in project appraisal and management.
• Debt Levels: Public debt is expected to rise significantly due to infrastructure investments, reaching 54% of GDP by 2021.
• FDI Inflows: FDI inflows have grown substantially since the early 2000s, mainly from EU countries, with a focus on the manufacturing sector.
• Spillover Effects: Public infrastructure investment has indirect effects on private investment and consumption, which are important for medium-term growth.

Summary of Quantitative Results

• Growth Impact: Annual investments in the four projects are expected to raise the real GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points annually for 2014–2020.
• Efficiency Gains: Raising public investment efficiency to South Africa's level could increase the growth effect to 0.8 percentage points annually.
• Output Level: By end-2020, real GDP is projected to be 4% higher than in the hypothetical scenario without infrastructure investments.
• FDI Contemporaneous Effect: A 1% increase in public investment leads to a 0.3% increase in output, which is higher than the WEO 2014 estimate of 0.25%.
• Fiscal Risks: The rising public debt and currency mismatch pose significant risks, especially with debt service increasing from 2019 onwards.
• Maintenance Costs: Annual maintenance costs of 5000–7000 USD per kilometer are required to sustain the benefits of infrastructure investments.

Conclusion

• Growth Potential: Public infrastructure investment has the potential to significantly boost economic growth in FYR Macedonia, especially if efficiency is improved.
• Fiscal and Currency Risks: However, the increasing public debt and currency mismatch need careful monitoring.
• FDI Role: FDI has played a role in boosting growth and employment, but its benefits are limited by the country's small size, low skilled labor, and low technological development.
• Policy Recommendations: Improving public investment efficiency, managing debt, and complementing FDI with labor market and institutional reforms are critical for sustainable growth.