深度-联合国粮农组织-2021年全球粮食展望报告（英文）-2021.6-188页_8mb

Food Outlook: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets (2021)

Core Content

The Food Outlook report, published by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 2021, provides a comprehensive analysis of global food markets, focusing on key commodities such as wheat, coarse grains, rice, oilcrops, sugar, meat, dairy, and fisheries. The report highlights the resilience of global food trade and prices despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular emphasis on how the international food system maintained stability during the crisis.

Main Points and Key Information

Global Food Trade and Prices

• Global food trade is expected to remain resilient in 2021/22, with international prices remaining strong.
• Food import bills have surged due to increased trade volumes and higher prices, even amid the pandemic.
• The FAO Food Price Index rose sharply in early 2021, indicating continued momentum in food price trends.

Wheat Market

• Global wheat production is forecast to reach a new all-time high in 2021, up 1.4% year-on-year.
• Wheat utilization is expected to increase by 2.5%, driven by rising feed demand, especially in Asia and Europe.
• World wheat stocks are projected to rise for the third consecutive year, with significant increases in China, the European Union, India, and Ukraine.
• Wheat trade is expected to grow slightly in 2021/22, with increased imports from Asian countries and exports from Argentina, Ukraine, and the European Union.

Coarse Grains Market

• Coarse grain production (mainly maize) is forecast to increase by 2.5% in 2021, but stocks are expected to fall below opening levels for the fourth consecutive season.
• Utilization is rising due to increased industrial use, especially for ethanol and starch production in the US and China.
• Global coarse grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected to drop to its lowest level since 2012/13, driven by a drawdown in China's maize inventories.
• Coarse grain trade is expected to remain near the 2020/21 record level, with increased maize and sorghum exports from Argentina, Ukraine, and the US.

Rice Market

• Global rice production is expected to reach a new record in 2021, up 1.0% from the previous year.
• Rice utilization is projected to increase by 1.4%, driven by both food and feed use.
• Rice trade is forecast to grow by 5.6% in 2021, but trade growth may stall in 2022 due to reduced Far Eastern imports.
• Global rice stocks are expected to remain only marginally above opening levels, with China's drawdown likely to offset gains in other major exporters.

Oilcrops Market

• Oilcrop production in 2020/21 is expected to recover slightly, but still fall short of global demand.
• Oilseeds and derived products face a tight market outlook, with stocks-to-use ratios declining.
• Oils and fats are expected to see a slight recovery in production, but global inventories are forecast to drop to an 11-year low.
• Meals and cakes are expected to see a slight increase in production and utilization, but stocks are also projected to contract, possibly reaching a seven-year low.

Sugar Market

• World sugar production is forecast to decline for the third consecutive season in 2020/21, slightly below consumption levels.
• Global sugar trade is expected to contract slightly due to reduced availability in key exporters.

Meat Market

• World meat output is expected to expand in 2021 despite challenges in value chains.
• Global meat trade is forecast to stagnate, with bovine and poultry meat trade offsetting a contraction in pig and ovine meat trade.

Dairy Market

• Global milk production is expected to increase steadily in 2021, despite the impact of the pandemic.
• Global trade in milk products is seen to rise, with Asia becoming a major importer.

Fisheries Market

• The global fish industry is preparing for a return of food service demand as economies recover.
• Retail markets and sanitary procedures have been significantly impacted by the pandemic and are expected to persist in the longer term.

Special Feature: Surging Trade and Rising Prices

• The Special Feature discusses how global food trade and prices have continued to rise despite the pandemic.
• Record import bills and increased trade volumes are seen as key factors in maintaining market stability.
• Alternative indicators are proposed to better capture the momentum in food price trends, which have been rising due to supply and demand imbalances.

Acknowledgements

• The report is prepared by the FAO Markets and Trade Division, with guidance from Boubaker Ben-Belhassen and Abdolreza Abbassian.
• A team of economists and support staff contributed to the report, including David Bedford, Harout Dekermendjian, and the fisheries statistical team.
• Special thanks are given to David Bedford and Lavinia Lucarelli for preparing the charts and statistical tables, and to Valentina Banti for administrative support.

Market Summaries and Indicators

• The report includes detailed market summaries and statistical tables for each commodity.
• Market indicators such as the FAO price indices, stock levels, and utilization rates are presented for different time periods and regions.
• Supply and demand forecasts are provided for each commodity, highlighting regional trends and global implications.

Policy and Trade Developments

• Major policy developments are discussed in relation to each commodity, including impacts on trade flows and market stability.
• National policy measures and vaccination campaigns are noted as potential factors influencing global trade dynamics.

Conclusion

The Food Outlook report underscores the resilience of the global food system in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, with trade volumes and prices remaining robust. Despite supply and demand uncertainties, the market is expected to continue its upward trend, although stock levels may remain tight for several commodities, particularly coarse grains and oilcrops. The report serves as a critical resource for understanding global food market dynamics and their implications for trade, prices, and policy.