20210601-招银国际-华润啤酒-00291.HK-Sponsorship_deal_to_expand_young_customer_base_7页_1mb

报告摘要

CR Beer (291 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

CR Beer (291 HK) is a key player in the China beer sector, with a focus on premiumization and expanding its young customer base through strategic partnerships and brand endorsements. The company's recent sponsorship deal with Wang Yibo, a popular pop artist, is expected to enhance its market presence among younger demographics. Additionally, CR Beer is collaborating with a baijiu company to leverage shared distribution channels and strengthen its foothold in Shandong.

Main Points

Brand Strategy and Market Expansion

Wang Yibo Sponsorship: Wang Yibo, with 38.44 million Weibo followers, has been appointed as a spokesperson for Brave the World Super X. His endorsement is expected to significantly boost brand awareness and attract a younger audience.
Endorsement Impact: Wang Yibo's endorsement performance on the first two days (29-30 May) exceeded the average index of all new endorsements in April 2021, indicating strong brand synergy.
Double Spokesperson Strategy: Brave the World Super X now employs a double spokesperson strategy, focusing on street dance to connect with young consumers.

Premiumization Trend

The premiumization trend is on track to achieve 20-30% growth in FY21E.
Sales volume in 4M21 largely recovered to 4M19 levels, with a 1% volume reduction in FY20 due to the exit of low-profitability businesses.
Heineiken China's performance was positively impacted by the 2020 European Cup, and similar effects may be seen for other brands in the sector.

Financial Performance

Revenue Growth: Expected to grow at a 10% CAGR from FY20 to FY23E, with forecasts of RMB 35,939 million in FY21E and RMB 41,580 million in FY23E.
Adjusted Net Profit Growth: Projected to grow at a 26% CAGR, reaching RMB 5,944 million in FY23E.
Gross Margin Expansion: Expected to rise from 40.3% in FY20A to 44.0% in FY23E, driven by premiumization and capacity efficiency gains.

Valuation and Target Price

The target price has been raised from HK$73.10 to HK$81.00, based on a 46x FY22E P/E ratio.
The current price is HK$69.65, indicating a potential upside of +16%.
CR Beer's PEG (Price-to-Earnings Growth) is 2.0x, lower than international peers (2.6x) and Bud APAC (4.7x), suggesting better value.

Key Financial Metrics

Revenue

FY19A: RMB 33,190 million
FY20A: RMB 31,448 million
FY21E: RMB 35,939 million
FY22E: RMB 38,864 million
FY23E: RMB 41,580 million

Net Profit

FY19A: RMB 1,312 million
FY20A: RMB 2,094 million
FY21E: RMB 3,754 million
FY22E: RMB 4,698 million
FY23E: RMB 5,594 million

Adjusted Net Profit

FY19A: RMB 2,838 million
FY20A: RMB 2,967 million
FY21E: RMB 4,129 million
FY22E: RMB 5,048 million
FY23E: RMB 5,944 million

Adjusted EPS

FY19A: RMB 0.875
FY20A: RMB 0.915
FY21E: RMB 1.273
FY22E: RMB 1.556
FY23E: RMB 1.832

P/E Ratio

FY19A: 70.2x
FY20A: 67.7x
FY21E: 48.4x
FY22E: 39.6x
FY23E: 33.6x

P/B Ratio

FY19A: 10.1x
FY20A: 9.5x
FY21E: 8.5x
FY22E: 7.6x
FY23E: 6.3x

Net Cash

FY19A: RMB 1,897 million
FY20A: RMB 4,606 million
FY21E: RMB 7,640 million
FY22E: RMB 10,875 million
FY23E: RMB 16,324 million

Key Risks

Cost Pressure: Although currently under control, further increases in raw material prices may lead to a nationwide price hike.
Keen Competition: The beer market is highly competitive, and maintaining market share is a challenge.
Food Safety Issues: Could impact consumer trust and sales.

Earnings Revisions

Revenue: CMBIS estimates show a slight upward revision for FY21E to FY23E, with an average increase of 1-3%.
Gross Profit: Slight upward revisions with a 1% increase in FY21E and 0.6-0.8ppt increases in FY22E and FY23E.
EBIT: Consistent with previous estimates, showing minimal changes.
Adjusted Net Profit: Significant upward revisions, with an average increase of 0-3%.
Margins: All margins (Gross, EBIT, Adjusted Net) show positive growth trends.

CMBIS Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10%.
SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10%.
NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIS.

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal opinions and that they have no financial interests in the companies mentioned.
No trading in the stock covered within 30 days prior to the report's release, and no trading within 3 business days after.

Disclosures

This report is not investment advice and is intended for specific recipients.
The information is based on publicly available data and is not guaranteed.
CMBIS may have conflicts of interest and is not liable for any losses incurred from relying on the report.

Conclusion

CR Beer is well-positioned for growth through its premiumization strategy and brand collaborations. The company's financial performance is on an upward trajectory, supported by efficient cost management and strategic brand endorsements. While there are risks, the overall outlook remains positive, leading to a "Buy" rating and a target price increase.

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