20230814-招银国际-李宁-02331.HK-Reiterated_guidance_but_we_remained_cautious_11页_1mb

报告摘要

1H23 Performance: Sales increased 13% YoY to RMB 14.0bn, missing FY23E guidance expectations by a small margin; net profit declined 3% YoY to RMB 2.1bn, primarily due to lower gross profit margin (48.8% vs. estimates) and higher operating expenses. Self-owned stores drove strong growth (+22%), while basketball and sports casual categories underperformed.

Recommendation: Maintain BUY rating, supported by long-term positive outlook but revised down due to near-term risks.
New Target Price: HK$52.97 (up 21.2% from current price of HK$43.70), based on a forward P/E of 25x FY24E revenue.
FY Projections Revised Down: Net profit for FY23E, 24E, and 25E reduced by 6.4%, 17.2%, and 18.6% YoY growth, respectively, due to margin pressures and potential operating deleverage.

Demand Concerns: Weaker macro environment, including reduced high-end consumption and uncertain trade conditions, may pressure retail sales and discounts. Inventory levels improved (inventory-to-sales ratio at 3.8x), but segment imbalances and distribution challenges persist.
Operational Risks: Higher discounts could erode gross margins; operating deleverage may exceed expectations if sales slowdown continues. Management's reforms (e.g., star product strategy) are expected to yield long-term benefits.

Current Trading: P/E 21x (FY24E), P/B 3.9x, ROE 17.0%. Revenue projected steady growth of ~14% CAGR through 2025.
Dividend: Interim dividend declared, implying a 45% payout ratio, higher than historical averages.