20231119-华泰期货-烧碱周报_上游装置逐步重启_供应回升_8页_592kb

Summary of Burn Alkali Weekly Report

Key Findings

• Supply: Expect a significant increase in production due to the restart of multiple facilities next week, leading to a supply rebound.
• Demand: Remains relatively stable, with support from alumina capacity restarts; however, alumina recovery is hindered by raw material shortages, and non-alumina sectors show no strong indicators.
• Prices: Current levels include Shandong 32% liquid alkali at 2281.25 yuan/ton (as of Nov 17) and other variants.
• Inventory: Low pressure, providing some support to liquid alkali prices.

Upcoming Events

• Next week: 8 sets of equipment are expected to restart, potentially easing supply constraints.
• Demand outlook: Alumina demand may rise but could weaken due to ongoing supply issues in alumina.

Outlook

• Prices are likely to remain stable next week amid balanced supply and demand, but supply increases could pose risks.
• Strategy: Neutral.
• Risks: Upstream production surges or renewed demand weakness could impact market dynamics.