IRENA-能源转型的社会经济足迹：埃及（英）-2023.11-62页_6mb

EGYPTSocio-economic footprint of the energy transition

Executive Summary

The energy transition in Egypt yields significant socio-economic benefits, with a 5.5% higher GDP on average by 2050, driven primarily by trade. The 1.5°C Scenario significantly increases employment in the energy sector (e.g., 2.4 million jobs in 2050), with renewables dominating job creation. Welfare improves by 12.2%, mainly due to enhancements in the social and environmental dimensions. The transition reduces reliance on fossil fuels, cuts energy import costs (about USD 63 billion in 2050), and improves air quality, enhancing public health.

Key Findings

1. Economic Impact: GDP increases by 5.5% in the 1.5°C Scenario due to improved trade, lower fuel imports, and higher investments. Lower fuel imports improve trade balance by USD 1.3 trillion cumulatively.

2. Employment: Energy sector employment peaks at 1.4 million by 2030. Renewables employment grows fivefold by 2030 (from 50,000 to 300,000 jobs). Solar technology dominates renewable jobs, accounting for up to 70%.

3. Welfare: The overall welfare index increases by 12.2%, supported by social (healthcare, education spending) and environmental improvements from reduced air pollution and carbon taxes.

Recommendations

• Strengthen carbon pricing with progressive fiscal policies to finance social spending.
• Enhance international collaboration and fund energy transition through green bonds and climate finance.
• Develop renewable hydrogen to support energy export opportunities and grid integration.
• Adopt nexus strategies for water, energy, and food sectors to improve resource planning.

Policy Implementation

• Pursue institutional reforms to streamline climate action planning and implementation.
• Accelerate electrification and EV adoption to create synergies with renewable deployment.
• Align energy transition policies with Egypt’s Vision 2030 and SDGs.