2026年世界杯社会经济影响分析报告_29页_1mb

FIFA World Cup 2026™ Socioeconomic Impact Analysis Summary

Overview

The FIFA World Cup 2026™ is a landmark event in international football, expanding to 48 teams and being co-hosted by Canada, Mexico, and the United States from June 11 to July 19, 2026. The event is expected to generate substantial socio-economic benefits, both in the host countries and globally, through direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts, as well as social benefits related to health, well-being, and community engagement.

Goal

The primary objective of this analysis is to evaluate the social and economic impact of the FIFA World Cup 2026™, using a structured and comprehensive approach to capture both tangible and intangible benefits.

Methodology

The study employs two methodologies:

• Impact Analysis: To assess the economic impacts, including Gross Output, GDP, Labor Income, and Employment.
• Social Return on Investment (SROI): To quantify the extra-financial value, including social benefits and negative impacts, aligned with OECD guidelines.

The analysis uses an Inter-Country Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) with 45 productive sectors and 76 countries, and incorporates stakeholder engagement, outcome mapping, and monetization techniques. A 5% discount rate is applied to calculate the present value of social benefits over a five-year horizon.

Key Economic Impacts

Total Economic Impact

• Gross Output (Global): $80.1 billion
• GDP (Global): $40.9 billion
• Total Employment (Global): 824,000 FTE
• Total Labor Income (Global): $20.769 billion

United States Impact

• Gross Output: $30.5 billion
• GDP: $17.148 billion
• Employment (FTE): 185,000
• Labor Income: $10.232 billion

Rest of the World Impact

• Gross Output: $49.607 billion
• GDP: $23.770 billion
• Employment (FTE): 639,000
• Labor Income: $10.537 billion

Event-Related Expenditure

• Total Event-Related Expenditure: $13.9 billion
  • USA Expenditure: $11.1 billion
    • FIFA Expenditure: $2.9 billion
    • Tourist Spending: $6.4 billion
  • Rest of the World Expenditure: $2.8 billion

Sector Contributions

• USA:
  • Accommodation & Food: $2.4 billion
  • Real Estate: $1.95 billion
  • Wholesale & Retail: $1.5 billion
• Rest of the World:
  • Wholesale & Retail: $2.6 billion
  • Real Estate: $2.3 billion

Employment Breakdown

• Global: 824,000 FTE
  • USA: 185,000 FTE
  • Rest of the World: 639,000 FTE

Social Impact

Total Social Benefits

• Global: $8.28 billion
• USA: $6.88 billion

Social Return on Investment (SROI)

• Global SROI: 3.64 (i.e., for every $1 invested, society benefits by $3.64)
• USA SROI: 4.03 (i.e., for every $1 invested, society benefits by $4.03)

Social Impact Breakdown

• Tourism Benefits: Calculated using the "rule of half" method, estimating consumer surplus based on tourist spending and stay duration.
• Sport Benefits: Includes healthcare cost savings, crime reduction, and injury-related expenses, derived from increased physical activity and community engagement.
• Entertainment Benefits: Valued based on time spent attending matches and social media engagement, with an estimated value of $2.11 per click.

Tourism Expenditure Forecast

• Total Stadium Attendance: 6.52 million people
• Foreign Attendance: 40% of total attendance
• Average Daily Spending per Tourist: $416
• Average Length of Stay: 12 days
• Total Tourism Expenditure: $7.482 billion

Stakeholder Engagement and Data Sources

• Stakeholder Mapping: Identifies and prioritizes groups affected by or influencing the event.
• Data Sources:
  • FIFA forecasts on expenditure and attendance
  • Nielsen surveys on participants
  • Tourism expenditure reports
  • Health impact studies
  • International benchmarks from World Bank, OECD, ILOSTAT, UNECE, WTO, and UNWTO

Shadow Pricing Methodology

• Conversion of Financial to Economic Costs:
  • Venue & Competition: $1.10B (Financial) → $0.93B (Economic)
  • Operations: $0.80B (Financial) → $0.68B (Economic)
  • Team Services: $0.41B (Financial) → $0.35B (Economic)
  • Communication & Marketing: $0.30B (Financial) → $0.25B (Economic)
  • Administration & Finance: $0.09B (Financial) → $0.07B (Economic)
  • Total Costs: $2.70B (Financial) → $2.28B (Economic)

Event Legacy

• Tourism Legacy: 65% of the tourism impact is expected to persist over five years
• Social Engagement: Estimated reach of 3.19 billion people with 1.19% engagement coefficient
• Practicing Induction: 3% of the local population is expected to start practicing football due to the event

Conclusion

The FIFA World Cup 2026™ is projected to have a transformative socio-economic impact, generating significant economic gains and social value. With a total investment of $13.9 billion, the event is expected to create 824,000 FTE jobs globally, and produce a total social return of $8.28 billion, with a SROI of 3.64. The United States, hosting 11 of the 16 cities, is expected to benefit the most in terms of economic output and social returns, with a SROI of 4.03.