IRENA-2023年世界能源转型展望：1.5°C路径，第2卷（英）-2023.11-94页_3mb

The analysis of IRENA's World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023: 1.5°C Pathway, Volume 2 reveals the socio-economic impacts of transitioning to a sustainable energy system. The report compares two scenarios: the Planned Energy Scenario (PES), which follows current energy pathways, and the ambitious 1.5°C Scenario, aligned with the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 1.2°C. Under the 1.5°C Scenario, global GDP is projected to grow by 1.5% annually compared to 0.4% under PES, driven by higher investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency. Job creation is bolstered, with energy sector employment reaching 140 million by 2050 (40 million more than PES), renewable energy jobs tripling to 40 million, and other transition-related sectors adding 81 million jobs.

The energy transition promises substantial socio-economic benefits, including reduced climate damages and improved global welfare. Revenue neutrality and international collaboration (e.g., the Global Energy Transition Fund) are essential to distribute benefits and address distributional challenges. Successful policy-making requires a holistic framework combining technological shifts with socio-economic policies to ensure equitable outcomes and facilitate a just transition. This includes retraining programs for fossil fuel workers, public investment in new infrastructure, and innovative financing mechanisms to support vulnerable regions.