20230830-招银国际-BBM_on_good_progress_5页_850kb

Baozun (BZUN US) Equity Research Update

Executive Summary

Baozun delivered mixed Q2 FY23 results with revenue growth but below consensus, driven by strong BBM business offset by softer BEC. Maintaining BUY rating with revised target price of US$7.6, reflective of softer BEC outlook but strategic synergies from recent acquisition.

Key Performance Highlights

• Stock Price: Current US$4.27, 78% upside to $7.6 target price
• Segment Results:
  • BBM unit recorded strong double-digit growth
  • BEC faced pressure from slower GMV recovery in Jul/Aug
  • Gap China shows improved operating performance
• Acquisition: Successful integration of Hunter brand creating strategic opportunities

Financial Analysis

• Revenue: YoY growth decelerating from 8.9% to 5.0% (FY23-25E)
• EBITDA: Adjusted profit narrowing significantly from negatives
• Valuation: 11x FY24 EV/EBIT (BEC) or 21x P/E, trading at distribution value

Outlook & Recommendations

• Q3 expected: Decelerating BEC growth (+15% YoY)
• Q4 outlook positive based on channel optimization
• Recommend focusing on B2B business strengths
• BUY rating maintained reflecting PBV and strategic positioning

Analyst Certification

• All views reflect independent research views
• Confirmed compliance with investment guidelines