2025-05-20-Jefferies-杰富瑞餐饮科技趋势监测-_2025年5月_15页_851kb

报告摘要

May 2025 Restaurant Technology Trends Monitor Summary

This report provides an overview of key data points affecting the Restaurant Technology (ResTech) sector, focusing on consumer spending, foot traffic, SMB performance, and emerging risks.

Consumer Resilience and Underlying Pressures: Consumer spending at U.S. restaurants showed slight resilience in April 2025, with flat year-over-year (y/y) same-store foot traffic and a 5% y/y increase in food services retail sales. However, credit metrics deteriorated further, with Days Beyond Terms (DBT) rising and late balances reaching ~52% for SMBs. We suspect this reflects a full employment environment and potential challenges approaching a breaking point, disproportionately affecting SMBs.
Restaurant Hiring and Employment Trends: Restaurant employment remained stable y/y in April, but job openings and hires declined sharply, signaling labor market strains. Concerns include competition and broader economic uncertainty, such as tariff impacts on ingredient costs, which could further pressure restaurant margins.
Competitive Landscape and Risks: The sector faces intensifying competition from companies like XYZ, and while Q1 2025 results were encouraging, ongoing macroeconomic headwinds may offset gains. Risks include reduced consumer spending, rising input costs, and regulatory or data security issues, all of which could affect long-term health in the segment.
Valuation and Recommendations: For Block, Inc., PAR Technology, and Toast, Inc., Jefferies maintains Buy ratings with specific price targets:
- Block: $60 PT based on FY26 adjusted EPS.
- PAR: $90 PT from a DCF model; risks include customer concentration.
- Toast: $50 PT from a DCF; risks involve competition and slower GPV growth.
  Overall, we reiterate a monitoring stance for TOST and highlight enterprise-focused companies as more insulated.
Macro and Alternative Data Insights: Data from sources like Placer, OpenTable, and Moody's indicate slight improvements in SMB spending (e.g., 5% m/m rebound in March), but widening inflation disparities (e.g., 3.9% y/y CPI for food away from home vs. 2% for home) and declining credit indicators suggest caution is warranted.