2025-05-20-Jefferies-奇富科技（QFIN）_执行进展顺利_12页_283kb

Qifu Technology (QFIN) reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, with loan volume and non-GAAP earnings exceeding expectations. Second-quarter non-GAAP earnings guidance is aligned with consensus, and loan volume is expected to decline slightly. Asset quality remains stable, with minimal exposure to export-related borrowers. The company is committed to share buybacks, enhancing shareholder value. Revenue and profit grew significantly year-over-year, driven by credit-driven and platform services segments. The investment thesis highlights QFIN's position in the SME digital lending market, with adjustments to pricing strategies post-regulations, and valuation targets set at $50 per ADS. Risks include stringent lending regulations, high marketing costs for user acquisition, and macroeconomic uncertainties affecting delinquency rates. Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating with a price target of $50, based on forward P/E multiples.

Summary Highlights:

• Financial Performance: 1Q25 revenue and earnings ahead of estimates; loan volume up 15.8% YoY to RMB88.9 billion; non-GAAP net profit grew 59.9% YoY.
• Investment Outlook: Target market for SME loans; pricing under 24% IRR; large addressable market exceeding RMB50 trillion.
• Risks: Regulatory scrutiny, aggressive marketing expenses, delinquency surge due to economic downturn.
• Valuation: Price target at US$50; risks emphasize regulatory and macro factors.